A report by Portfolio Personal Inversiones highlighted that the implicit rates from September to July 2023 advanced an average of 3.22 percentage points per day. “This new advance led the TNAs to be above 115% for contracts between September and January 2023, and comfortably exceed 100% in February 2023 onwards. The biggest jumps occurred in the implicit rate for September, which rose 8.8 percentage points from 106.4% to 115.2%, and in the rate for October, which went from 115.7% to 121.4%”, described the report. In this sense, from PPI they highlight that the TEA of both contracts shot up to 200% for the first time and that, with these increases, the implicit ones are at historical maximums, even surpassing the peak reached the day after Massa was confirmed as Minister of Economy .
On the other hand, analysts consulted by Ámbito point out that the increase in the amounts operated responds, in part, to the rollover of the maturities of the positions of the month, which is also accompanied by a high volume of open interest with implicit rates at maximums.
Andrés Reschini, analyst at F2 Financial Solutions, highlighted: “We are nearing the end of the month and it is logical that the volume will increase due to rollovers. On Monday, around 2,159,000 contracts in dollar futures were traded at Matba-Rofex and the open interest only rose US$73 million; Yesterday, 1,957,000 contracts were traded and open interest rose by US$170 million. Although they are the highest increases in the month, the relationship against the volume operated gives us the guideline that there is a high rate of rolleo”.
Mauro Cognetta, managing partner at Global Focus Investments, stressed that “accumulated open interest is US$8.5 billion, of which 65% of that number corresponds to August. The BCRA is sold for US$7.1 billion, but it has been rolling in the last few wheels”. In this line, he considered: “That the BCRA is rolling the September maturities, a bit comes to bring cold cloth, because if it were not doing it, one would think that it is going to make a jump in the exchange rate. I estimate that the market is buying the pass to September and the BCRA continues in the selling position of said pass, and ultimately assumes the roll position in which the monetary authority is selling in September”.
He agreed with the Reschini analysis. “Although I am not certain that the BCRA is fully rolling the maturities, the fact that this is happening could give us the guideline that the BCRA does not intend to devalue above its average sale. If he did, he would be incurring losses and, therefore, issuing more pesos to cover the difference in derivative contracts”, he concluded.
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
