According to different surveys, inflation in August fluctuated between 6.4% and 6.7%. Price pressures will continue this month. As explained by Ecolatina, “for Septemberadded to the high drag which left the acceleration of the second part of August and a sustained crawl pegwill punctually impact the increases in electricity and gasthe increase in the rate of subway (40%) and of taxis (30%); and increases to domestic workers and in the schools of the Province of Buenos Aires.
“So, the September index would be close to 6% (82% year-on-year). In this way, prices would accumulate 65% in the first three quarters of the year”, they remarked from the consultant when disseminating their IPC-GBA.
And, in the same document, they warned about the trend for the last months of 2022: “For the rest of the year, the reopening of paritya currency slide consolidated at levels higher than in previous months and the effects of the first and second rounds that the adjustments have on rates and fuelwill be combined to keep inflation above 5% per month, in the absence of a robust anchor to coordinate downward expectations. Even estimating this slight slowdown in the coming months, we project that inflation will close 2022 with a floor of 92%”.
Along the same lines, from Analytica they pointed out in this regard: “Inertia sets a high floor for inflationThat is why we see in the best scenario a monthly inflation of around 5% only in December”.
“September inflation is going to continue on the path of a very high regime and we will hardly have a figure of less than 5% in the rest of the year”, added Lautaro Moschet, Economist at Fundación Libertad y Progreso.
“There are several reasons for inflation to have a floor of between 5.5% and 6% for the coming months and stabilizes at 5% in the last two months of the year,” said Damián Di Pace, director of the Focus Market consulting firm. “Basically, because there is an increase in rates that will be staggered and will not only hit homes, but also on primary production, industry and trade. The increases will be staggered and will accumulate throughout the value chain, which is why it will impact the final price,” added the analyst.
“On the other hand, the wholesale exchange rate is running in the order of 5.6% monthly devaluation, with an inflation that we project of 6.4% in August,” said Di Pace, who concluded: “And we have to have considering that still there is a lag in the macroeconomic imbalance that occurred in June and July, with the restriction on imports: a certain sector of the economy is having problems importing. Above all, in the SME sector: 73% of SMEs directly or indirectly import inputs and raw materials for production, and five out of ten do not have the possibility of substituting them in the local market. So, that also creates obstacles in the production process.”
August inflation
On Wednesday the 14th INDEC will announce the august inflation. A figure that, although it would slow down compared to 7.4% in July, will continue to be high, both in monthly and year-on-year terms.
By case, the IPC GBA Ecolatina rose 6.7% monthly and in the year-on-year comparison it accelerated to reach 75.9%“representing the highest figure since January 1992 (76%)”.
He also projected an inflation of 6.7% the consultant Orlando Ferreres, with a year-on-year growth of 70.6%. “As for the main items, Health and Clothing led the month’s increases, registering a monthly increase of 11.6% and 10.4%, respectively, followed by Food and beverages, which presented a variation of 6.8%” , they remarked from the signature.
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
