In this way, the indicators for beef seem to be more than positive in a context in which the average price in the domestic market has not shown an acceleration with respect to general food inflation in the last three months and in which the The government resolved, just weeks ago, to expand the export quota by 15%.
As explained by Rosgan, the reference livestock market in Rosario, with an annual slaughter projected at 13.5 million heads and maintaining the current average weight obtained per beef, the production of beef could be contributing this year more than 3,100 thousand tons, beef equivalent on the bone, a volume already very close to the record reached in 2020, but with less extraction.
“Therefore, from the point of view of supply, if this quota expansion is sustained until the end of the year, exports could be absorbing close to 950,000 tons per year, that is, 30% of total production, a percentage much higher than the limit 24% outlined by the Government as an objective of ordering the market, and which has shown not to alter per se the level of local supply”, they explain from the Rosgan technical team.
From now on, some clouds appear on the horizon or factors to take into account. “At a time when it was supposed to be the months with the highest record of Chinese purchases, surprisingly little encouraging signs are beginning to arrive. A local situation that until now seemed not to significantly affect the beef market has begun to hit with a significant drop in values and a slowdown in imports. The data from SENASA on shipment certifications show a slight drop in the volume certified for China for August, although for the time being compensated in the general volume to all destinations,” said Rosgan.
And they added: “However, although it is premature to anticipate an outcome, it is clear how little the compensation power that other destinations can eventually exercise in the face of a possible fall in China, not only because of the weight that this market represents -close to 80% of our total shipments- but also because of the weakness shown by the main economies.September will then be a key month to determine if this “expansion” of quotas has not come at the wrong time, at a time when the world seems to be entering a phase of greater caution and austerity”.
As is often the case with the Asian giant, which had been making purchases much higher than usual, everything tends to assume that this maneuver would seek to step on beef prices, which continue to show sustained values in the post-pandemic.
Source: Ambito
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