The market is beginning to see how the “Massa plan” works, which consists of getting out of the stress situation immediately and then ordering the different variables economic. “He’s not a game changer yet, but he’s in shape, at least, and that’s why we’re more positive about sovereign debt and liquidated spot,” says Adcap. For the consultant, after the debt swap in August, it was possible to recover financing in pesos at the local level, so “the short term begins to look much better.”
Walter Morales, CEO of the fund manager WISE, considered that “the rebound in CER bonds is going to exist because inflation is here to stay for a while longer”. In this framework, the operators consider that at this stage of Massa’s administration in Economy there are still no “clear measures”, yet, to face the growth of prices.
Morales argued that CER-adjustable peso bonds “have been rising since Thursday of the week and are compressing rates.” Although for the CEO of WISE the wave of higher rises for inflation-adjustable paper “has passed”.
The mistrust that the markets still have is that the US$5 billion that Massa is targeting for September is considered a “usual income” in the framework of foreign exchange settlements made by operators.
Nonetheless, In the first round of negotiations after the new scheme for grain companies was published, the Central Bank managed to add US$140 million, accelerating the rate of accumulation. For Morales, in reality, with the soybean dollar “the government is putting a new value for the wholesale dollar, of $200”.
Nery Persichini, Head of Research at GMA Capital He pointed out that “short-term conditions look more favorable than in the past, especially due to the possibility of increasing reserves, less negative real interest rates and exchange rate stability.” “But there were also considerable gains of 30% on average with CER bonds since the end of July that invite caution,” warned the analyst who specified that “The most appropriate risk-return mix is in the short section of the CER curve, which offers coverage against a negative inflation scenario.”
Xavier Marcus, Southern Trust business manager He raised the paradox that contrary to what the majority supposes, that the income of dollars moves away the possibility of a devaluation, in reality it brings it closer. “A week ago you didn’t have the necessary reserves,” he explained.
Marcus points out that “once you have liquid reserves you have the possibility of making a controlled devaluation” The specialist considered that “the CER debt continues to improve, surely with this it will improve because the demand to enter pesos pesos is going to be greater”.
One of the signs traders are waiting for is the upcoming Treasury debt auction on September 16th. The mix of bonds offered by the Ministry of Finance will set the tone for the course of the CER debt in the short term. Marcus considered that the Treasury has to go out with “caution”. Basically, he should avoid testing. “Don’t try to come up with something long that the market ends up rejecting,” he said.
Source: Ambito
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