“Despite the fact that loans are recovering their growth rate in nominal values, they are below inflation in recent months. We must go back to January of this year to find growth above the values of the inflation index for the month” remarked the consultant.
In this sense, he highlighted that one of the reasons why portfolio expansion is limited is the rise in active interest rates.
“Given the increase in interest, the borrowing capacity of individuals falls, in short: the higher the interest to be paid, the lower the capital of the loan to be granted.¨, he explained William Barberpartner of First Capital Group.
Meanwhile, total loans in pesos to the private sector reached a level of $5,913,038 million in August, which represented a rise of $2,592,625 million in the last year, equivalent to an increase of 78.1%, values that they are very close to the inflation of the period, if values are compared year by year and taking into account that the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) has not yet released the index for the eighth month of the year.
During the last month, growth was $175,070 million, which represents 3.1%, approximately half the value of expected inflation for this period.
In another order, The report showed that credit card operations registered a balance of $1,751,270 million, which means an increase of 6.1% compared to the end of last month, some $100,655 million above July and close to inflation. expected.
The year-on-year growth reached 68.1%, and in this case it did not reach the levels of inflation for the period, resulting in a drop in the portfolio in real terms.
Regarding mortgage credit lines, including those adjusted for inflation/UVA, during August they grew 3.6% with respect to the stock of $345,347 million from the previous month, accumulating a total closing balance of $357,774 million and a year-on-year increase of 44.6% in nominal terms.
“This line does not represent an important part of the market, but it maintains its niche of those interested in making improvements and extensions to their homes”, assured Barber.
Likewise, the pledge credit line presented a portfolio balance at the end of August 2022 of $398,697 million, which represented a growth of 128.6% versus the portfolio at the end of the same month of 2021 of $174,379 million. In this way, it exceeded year-on-year inflation and ranked first in growth among loan lines.
The variation with respect to the balance of the previous month marked a rise of 6.2%, accumulating two years of consecutive monthly increases.
“As a curious fact, we can comment that the sum of pledge loans has exceeded the total of mortgage loans in recent monthsBarber explained.
In relation to commercial loans, this line decreased its balance by 0.8% compared to what was observed last month, placing it with a portfolio stock of $2,098,388 million, interrupting the nominal rise since last July. Compared to the same month of the previous year, the rise is 99.3%, above inflation for the period.
According to the consultant, the rise in interest rates conditioned the demand for new loans and encouraged the cancellation of balances. “As we mentioned in the previous report, restrictions on access to the MULC have limited the expansion of banking activity”, they highlighted from the consultant.
Regarding loans in dollars, compared to last month, the total amount presented a negative variation of 4.6%, returning to the downward trend shown since June 2021, interrupted during February, May and June 2022.
Regarding the interannual variation, it presented a decrease of 29%. Meanwhile, the stock of loans in dollars is US$3,692 million. 64.92% of the total debt in foreign currency continues to be the commercial line, which fell 36.5% in the year and decreased 6.7% compared to the previous month, the report detailed.
Lastly, he indicated that credit cards recorded a year-on-year increase of 255.2%, although with an irregular monthly behavior. In August there was an increase of 6.2% compared to the previous month.
“The increase in taxes on purchases with cards in dollars has put a brake on the expansion of this item despite the increase that has been observed in the departures of cardholders abroad,” concluded First Capital Group.
Source: Ambito
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