“We expect that in August the consumer price index will slow down compared to the peak variation of July, but still reaching high records, around 6.5% per monthwhich would imply an annual inflation of 77.5%”, they anticipated for their part from the LCG consultancy.
“This estimate is based first on average monthly inflation of Food and beverages 6.3% according to our survey, which would contribute 1.8 pp of inflation in the month; second, increases of some regulated services during the month (40% in buses and trains in the AMBA and an increase of up to 11.34% in rates of prepaid) and began to pay the $134,000 bonus for building managers ($12,000 in August), which will affect an increase in expenses around 6%. These issues would add approximately 2 additional pp to headline inflation. The rest is provided by an inertia that remains high”, they added from the firm.
For its part, the IPC GBA of Ecolatina registered an increase of 6.7% in August. “Within the index, the chapters with the greatest evolution were ‘Home equipment and maintenance’ (9.4%), ‘Medical care and health expenses’ (7.9%) and ‘Food and beverages’ (7. 4%)”, they detailed from the signature.
“Within Food and Beverages -category that explained 40% of the increase in the general level– The increases in Vegetables (16.7%), Noodles and pasta (10.3%), Cheese (9.3%), Cold cuts, sausages and preserves (9.1%), Dairy products and eggs (8 .6%) and Fruits (8.4%)”, they detailed.
also esteem 6.7% for August the firm C&T for the GBA. Along the same lines, he highlighted the rise in “Transportation and communications”, “Clothing” and “Food and beverages”, which climbed 7.5%. According to the director of the firm, In September, inflation would be around 6%, with somewhat more moderate increases in the food category.
what to expect in september
According to the first surveys carried out by consultants, it is estimated that September inflation will not pierce 6% either. “Our estimate for retail inflation for the first week of September was 3.7%, which places it 0.3 points above the same figure for August. With this number, the month would point to closing with an inflation of 6.5%. Consolidating a cruising speed for prices above 6% per month for the third consecutive month”, Eugenio Marí, Chief Economist of the Fundación Libertad y Progreso, explained to Ámbito.
“It must be taken into account that in September several increases in regulated prices will begin to have an impact. The most important of these are the gas and electricity utility rates, which would contribute 0.5 percentage points to the rise in the general CPI this month. To which are added schools and transportation,” added Marí.
And, facing what may happen in the coming months, the economist pointed out: “Under this dynamic, the probability that 2022 will close with inflation above 90% is very highmaking the year the most inflationary since the hyperinflation of the early 1990s. And the chances that the general CPI will register 3-digit increases (+100% annual) also increase, something that is already evident in some items such as clothing and textiles. These signs point to the fact that we have entered a new inflationary regime, from which exit will require very strong signals in terms of fiscal solvency and independence of the Central Bank”.
While, from Eco Go they projected that the inflation index for September would be located at 6.3%. “Regulated products drove the general indicator for the month upwards with increases in electricity, gas, and subway rates (10.4%, 14.9% and 40% respectively), cigarettes (11.3%), schools in PBA (9%), domestic service (9%) and expenses (between 6% and 10%), among others”, they detailed.
As for the foods, the survey corresponding to the second week registered a variation of 1.5% with respect to the previous week. “With this data and considering a weekly variation projection of 1.4% for the next three weeks of the month, the inflation of food consumed at home in September would climb to 6.6% monthly”, they concluded.
That’s the way it is, headline inflation would only pierce 6% in October. This is what was estimated in the REM, where they projected a rise in the CPI of 5.7% for next month, 5.5% for November and 5.8% for December.
Source: Ambito
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