In this regard, from Ieral they pointed out that the EMAE showed a year-on-year growth of 7.5% for the second quarter of 2022. “For its part, the collection of taxes associated with the internal market (Ieral Index) showed a variation of 6.7% year-on-year in real terms for the average from April to June. There are no EMAE data for July and August, but the Ieral Index anticipates a year-on-year variation of 2.6% for the third quarter, a marked deceleration of 4.1 percentage points compared to the figure for the second quarter”, pointed out a report signed by Jorge Vasconcelos and Agustín Cavallo.
“Behind the slowdown in activity level of the third quarter, we must take into account the inflationary acceleration of the last period, which affected the purchasing power of aggregate demand and, convergingly, the growing difficulties for the supply of parts and pieces of imported origin, which have slowed down activity in various value chains. To these vectors is added, as of August, the restrictive impact on credit to companies that the tightening of monetary policy has begun to generate,” the report concluded.
Analysis
Meanwhile, as analyzed by the head of Research at Ecolatina Santiago Manoukian, a negative advance is estimated in seasonally adjusted terms in the activity for the second semester. “The outlook for the last part of the year will be colored by a greater impact of the acceleration in inflation on income (mainly self-employed, informal and sectors more dependent on transfers from the State), a rate adjustment of utilities that will subtract disposable income, an increase in the cost of consumer credit and investment due to the adjustment in rates and a lower fiscal impulse due to the need to accelerate fiscal consolidation”, he remarked.
The effect of the loss of purchasing power on consumption, assured the economist Sergio Chouzawill impact the evolution of the activity. “As a predominant component of GDP in Argentina, what happens to private consumption is going to determine the rate of slowdown in this last part of the year,” remarked the director of the consulting company Sarandí, although he clarified: “For now, there are no indicators that they be unequivocal, that they mark a collapse”.
Something similar was raised by the consulting firm LCG when analyzing the variation of the EMAE of the first semester, in which it anticipated that for the second half of the year, “erosion of salaries through, the brake on activity begins to become more palpable.”
Source: Ambito
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