“Growth will slow this year due to a fading low base effect, coupled with runaway inflation, peso depreciation and macroeconomic imbalances. The same factors will likely limit growth in economic activity next year.” next year, since they weigh on domestic demand, beyond the timely application of the measures in progress”, they highlight from FocusEconomics.
Dollar
Specialists expect the peso to devalue more at the end of the year and also in 2023, taking into account the monetary issue and high inflation.
The consensus of local and foreign analysts maintains in the September report that the official exchange rate will reach the end of the year at $168.1a figure that represents an increase of $1.8 compared to the forecast made in last month’s survey.
In the projections shared by FocusEconomics it is evident that national and foreign economists from banks and consulting firms await a rise in the price. The highest price is predicted by the consulting firm founded by Orlando Ferreres (OJF & Asociados), with a projection of $184.4 by the end of the year. FIEL forecasts $183.3, while Econviews forecasts $179.8.
“These levels are in line with the dynamics that we are seeing in the official market, with a crawling peg that is accelerating around 6% to 7% per month. Percentages that, to some extent, represent the average monthly inflation rate of the coming months”, explains the economist Fernando Baer.
Inflation
From FocusEconomics they highlighted in their report that growth will slow this year due to a low base effect that fades.
“To this is added an out-of-control inflation, the depreciation of the peso and macroeconomic imbalances. The same factors will probably limit the growth of economic activity next year, since they weigh on internal demand, beyond the application of the measures in course,” they added.
Based on this scenario, the consensus among experts estimates that it should accelerate even more in the remainder of this year and remain extremely high in 2023, driven by the devaluation of the peso.
Consequently, the consensus of the surveyed analysts is that inflation would be 91.1% throughout 2022some 9 percentage points higher than forecast in August.
Increase
Finally, from FocusEconomics they highlighted in their report that growth will slow this year due to a low base effect that fades.
“To this is added an out-of-control inflation, the depreciation of the peso and macroeconomic imbalances. The same factors will probably limit the growth of economic activity next year, since they weigh on internal demand, beyond the application of the measures in course,” they added.
Based on this scenario, the consensus among experts estimates that the economy will grow 3.3% in 2022which represents a 0.3 percentage point increase from last month’s estimate.
Source: Ambito
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