It is worth remembering that the financial dollar does not stop its bullish streak for the fourth consecutive day, it operates at its highest in almost two months and is above $300.
“However, these twists and turns can be counterproductive since they add noise to the soybean complex in the short term, they can slow down the very good performance of the “soybean dollar” and thus make it difficult to achieve the goal of net reserves with the IMF at the end of the month. It will be necessary to see what is the final impact of this measure “against the hand” of the incentives offered to the soybean complex at the beginning of this month. Yesterday, US$313.4 million were settled, totaling US$3,880 million so far this month, remaining very close to the US$5,000 million objective set at the beginning,” said the consultant.
Soybean dollar: what the numbers say
Soybean producers have sold almost 9 million tons since the Export Increase Program came into force on Monday, September 5, which implements an exchange rate of $200 per dollar for exports of the oilseed until September 30.
According to figures from the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange, 615,678 tons of soybeans were sold on Friday, which since Monday 5 totals 8,839,095 tons in ten rounds. The income of dollars from foreign sales allowed the Central Bank (BCRA) to increase its net reserves by US$2.19 billion so far in September.
Disincentives to the sector
Meanwhile, the economist Jorge Neiro He pointed out: “The Central Bank became nervous with the rise in the gap and yesterday’s measure tried to stop this but it was quite counterproductive because it strongly affected the incentives of the soybean complex to continue liquidating. Later the measure was rolled back a bit to maintain incentives to natural persons that we do not know how many there are. Somehow the operation of the soybean dollar may be affected. You have to see the real effect today and tomorrow, but it shows that after 15 days, the effects have not been 100% positive.”
“A lot of reserves were accumulated but also the pressure of the associated issue ended up affecting the financial dollars, something that was quite expected. These changes in plans a few days after the start of the measure are strange,” said Neyro. As confirmed by the Secretary of Agriculture, José Bahillo, 60% of income per soybean dollar corresponds to individuals.
Martin Kalos, Director of EpyCA Consultora, affirmed that the Central Bank’s decision harms expectations: “It gives the signal once again that the government can propose something with certain rules of the game and then change them. There are twists and turns that generate mistrust, that discourage. In the case of soybean exporters, beyond this distinction that ends up being a bit ad hoc as to which producers can take advantage of the dollar at 200 but exporters cannot, what happens is that those who now decide to abide by these rules, it does not serve them. Poorly announced, with little clarity, they create the feeling that different areas of the government are aiming at different things.”
How can it impact the dollar?
Lastly, the Aurum Values Consultant put the magnifying glass on the reaction of financial dollars: “The restriction measure tries to prevent the measure that the government itself implemented from producing effects” such as the increase in the exchange rate gap due to the issue. “The pressure on the MEP when transforming exporters’ dollars into pesos held by producers was obvious”he concluded.
What tax experts warn companies
With the clarification of the Central Bank that the resolution does not contemplate natural persons, tax experts warn companies. “Be careful if the companies transfer the pesos to the shareholders (individuals) so that they are dollarized and then return the US$ to the company because this can decapitalize the company since when the US$ is entered and accounted for in pesos at the official exchange rate is not enough to cover the outflow of all pesos. The same thing would happen if that outflow of pesos comes out via a loan from the company and then the US$ enters the company again. Let’s remember that the output via dividends pay taxes and can be distributed once a year”, said Juan Manuel Ocampos, Partner of Expansion Argentina
Source: Ambito
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