The trigger for the rise in the illegal dollar occurs after the monetary authority established the day before that companies that sell soybeans through the Export Increase Program, as of this Tuesday, will not be able to access the purchase of the stock dollar -CCL or MEP- nor the so-called savings dollar.
The BCRA had to clarify through a statement that the measure does not include the producers that sell soybeans but the companies that do so.
Communication “A” 7609 of the BCRA covers “clients residing in the country engaged in agricultural activity who sell merchandise within the framework of Decree No. 576/22”, which established the Export Increase Program, which allows access to a preferential exchange rate of $200 per dollar for the export of soybean grains or derivatives.
The monetary organization also specified that “Economic agents that have sold soybeans under the Export Increase Program will not be able to access the foreign exchange market for purchases of foreign currency nor carry out operations with titles and securities with settlement in foreign currency.“.
It should be remembered that the Export Increase Program was agreed with the main export complexes, that they committed to liquidate soybeans and derivatives for at least US$5,000 million during the current month.
Soybean sales by producers have already accumulated almost 9 million tons in ten days. Since the beginning of the month, the monetary authority has already acquired around US$2.35 billion.
What do analysts expect for the blue dollar?
“The ceiling of the blue dollar will depend on what continues to happen with the issuance of pesos. The value of the dollar is a result of the number of pesos that you have in the economy. Every peso you issue has a great chance that it will go to the dollar. The more obstacles they put, the higher the blue will go. It is a pity because a certain stability in the exchange rate had been achieved“said the financial operator Christian Butler in dialogue with Ambit.
“Clearly the measure that caused this rise in the blue was that of the Central Bank adjusting the stocks to soybean producers, who can no longer access the MEP and CCL dollar. It is a damage to the sector. It is crazy that the Central Bank prohibits everything Free access to the dollar in Argentina Today you have other tools to access the dollar such as the MEP and the CCL, which are currencies that do not involve BCRA reserves. There is no reason to be the measure that the only thing it does is that blue is the most expensive“, he analyzed.
for the economist Gustavo Berthe informal dollar is being rearranged to the financial dollars, which recently woke up and thus were more advanced.
“The uncertainty generated by the latest measures on the soybean dollar, which had been the main source of foreign currency supply beyond the monetary implications, does not help the calm of economic agents and is combined with an external context inclined towards aversion to the risk in the face of the continuous rise in rates, pending the decision of another 75 bps from the Fed. Even so, it is noteworthy that the high nominal value of the economy pushes the bottom, and thus the psychological barrier of $300 would not be possible to sustain.“, said to Ambit.
To its turn, John Paul Albornozan economist at Invecq, told this medium that the blue skyrocket responds to the dollar restriction measure for those who export soybeans and although he assured that the currency in the illegal market will continue to climb, he stated that it is not known what the price may be. the ceiling.
“These are measures that generate noise that is then channeled into the exchange market. Not being able to access any type of dollar when you have a subsidy means that in some way that demand is channeled into the blue dollar. We have only just begun to see the consequences, they are not good measures“, he opined.
He also analyzed:The financial dollars are still above the blue so I think the informal dollar has a way to go. Until where? no one can know“.
Source: Ambito
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