“Among the components of demand, the largest increase was observed in gross fixed capital formation, with 18.8% year-on-year. On the side of the activity sectors, the increases in Hotels and restaurants (53.9% yoy), Fishing (24.1% yoy) and Exploitation of mines and quarries (15.5% yoy) stood out”, highlighted the official organism.
projections
Based on the data released by INDEC, and analyzing the economic situation in recent months, different analysts warned that activity will stop in the second semester. “Looking ahead to the second half of the year, it is most likely that activity will begin to moderate its expansion and even fall. On the one hand, international prices, which have already fallen 10% since their peak, are returning to normal. To which is added the acceleration of inflation, with its consequent drop in investment and consumption, and the difficulties in accessing productive inputs. All this sets a second semester where the economy would contract around 1.5%to close the year with growth compared to 2021 in the order of 4%”, said Eugenio Marí, Chief Economist of the Fundación Libertad y Progreso.
From LCG, meanwhile, they pointed out that “Taking into account the evolution of the spending components, it is expected that private consumption will slow down its growth due to the continuous erosion of real wages as a result of high inflation”. “Additionally, as was anticipated by Minister Massa, the Government’s spending should change its dynamics in order to meet the fiscal deficit goals within the framework of the agreement with the IMF. For its part, given the difficulties in accessing foreign currency, the restrictions on imports and the current political uncertainty, investment will be discouraged, observing a similar behavior on the external front. In short, we project a slowdown in the level of activity towards the second half, with growth for 2022 of around 3.5% on average, similar to the statistical drag left by 2021”, they added from the firm.
Along the same lines, from ACM they maintained that for this year moderate growth of around 3.5% is expectedwith a fall “in seasonally adjusted terms for the third quarter as a result of uncertainty and greater restrictions on imports.”
Analysis
By analyzing in detail the factors which will mean a stop activitythe economist at Equilibra Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina pointed out to Ambit: “The second semester started with a lot of uncertainty. At the end of June there was a stocks exchange rate that was reinforced and problems with the debt in pesos, a significant increase in the gap and during July there were moments of great uncertaintywith replacement of authorities economic included. The inflation it jumped in July (7.4%) and remained very high in August (7%). We already know that formal salaries in July grew 5.3%, that is to say that they lost strongly against that inflation that accelerated. The purchasing power of wages is not following inflation, which has accelerated to very harmful levels”.
“Although the gap has decreased a little, it is still high. And there is a turn in economic policy, with a State that is clearly adjusting public accounts to try to achieve the Monetary Fund’s goal of a primary deficit of 2.5 points, when in the first semester there were no major cuts. So, you have to exaggerate the bias, be very contractiveAdded Sigaut Gravina.
The economist, then, concluded: “Import supply problems, purchasing power of wages that does not reach inflation and a more contractionary economic policy, with greater fiscal adjustment and interest rates that are increasingly closer to inflation, makes that what we expect in the second semester is an activity that falls on the margin. Anyway, the year will end with significant growth, just below the 4% expected by the Government as reported in the Budget”.
Source: Ambito
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