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some polls place it again close to 7% in September

some polls place it again close to 7% in September

“In any case, the floor is very high for the last quarter of the year, when there will also be no anchor to stabilize expectations in a context of high inertia and a crawling peg that is not far behind, contributing to a greater persistence of the inflationary phenomenon. Consequently, we expect inflation to be close to 100% at the end of the year”, they remarked.

In the same line, from Echo Go They estimated that the data September inflation would stand at 6.6%. From the firm they estimate an increase of 7.2% for this month in food consumed at home, and added: “It is also worth noting the increase in regulated products, which this month, far from acting as an anchor, include electricity rates , gas, and subway (10.4%, 14.9% and 40% respectively), cigarettes (11.3%), schools in PBA (9%), domestic service (9%) and expenses (between 6% and 10%), among others”.

For his part, from LCG They projected an inflation of “at least” 6.5% for this month, due to the increases in Foods anticipated by the survey of prices carried out by the firm: 7.2% monthly in the first two weeks. “To which is added increases in Taxis, Subway, Cigarettes, Expenses and Schools, and that are combined with a high inflationary inertia”, they detailed.

Inflation Gondola Consumption Prices

Consultants estimate a floor of 6% inflation for September

Ignatius Petunichi

Analysis

“With the price survey that we have until the third week of September, we can infer that inflation for the month will once again be above 6%. Although it would mark a slowdown compared to the previous two months, continues at a very high level, which is unlikely to decrease in the rest of the year”, he explained to Ámbito Lautaro Moschet, economist at the Fundación Libertad y Progreso.

“Regarding the items, it should be mentioned that those that increased the most have little impact on the index. An example of this is ‘Education’ and ‘Alcoholic beverages and tobacco’, whose increases exceed 10%. On the other hand, ‘Housing, water, electricity and other fuels’ shows an increase of 7.3%. Here we must take into account the removal of energy subsidies, which will begin to have an impact in the current month. Finally, the price of ‘Food and non-alcoholic beverages’, whose impact hits squarely on the purchasing power of households, showed an increase of 6.5% so far this monthMoschet added.

For his part, the economist Camilo Tiscornia pointed out that according to the surveys of the C&T consultancy, September inflation would be “slightly above 6%”. “We will see how the month ends, but it aims to be above this figure. Obviously, electricity and gas play an important role, because the increase in rates began due to the removal of subsidies. There are also prepaid increases, salary increases for building managers, ”he detailed.

“Another important issue is dressthat in September there is always an extra peak due to the change of season. But let’s see what happens, because July and August, which are quiet months for this sector, had brutal increases. So we will see what happens in September”, remarked Tiscornia, who clarified: “In general, the reality is that everything goes up: there is no item that is going up the most, everything is going up a lot and quite close to 6%. Food and drinks, included”.

Consumption

Beyond the inflationary jump of recent months, the massive consume still resist. At least, this is what emerges from the report prepared by the consulting firm Scentia. According to the firm’s survey of supermarket chains and independent self-service stores, “the ‘Self Service’ shows a positive variation in August with respect to the same month of the previous year, this variation being 1.1%, accumulating a positive 3.7% in the year”.

When analyzing by region, the reality is different: in the AMBA, growth in August was 0.4% and in the Interior, 1.7%. In the accumulated of the eight months, in the metropolitan region of Buenos Aires a fall of 1.6% was registered, while in the Interior, growth was 7.6%.

As for consumption by items, it appears that the “food” basket climbed 0.6% year-on-year; “breakfast and snack”, 0.5%; perishable and cold, 3.8%; and impulsive, 17%. On the contrary, “clothing and home cleaning” contracted, 2%; “hygiene and cosmetics”, 3.6% and “alcoholic drinks”, 2.8%. “Non-alcoholic beverages”, meanwhile, did not present variations.

Source: Ambito

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