“October is a key month, on Friday the soybean dollar ends at $200, the exporters will not wait for the last day to close operations, it is a complex operation and requires logistics, administration and order, therefore, the dollars of the field will begin to decrease from next week. While the field received a special dollar as a benefit to export, soy holders who have in stock more than 5% of what is harvested, will have a financial penalty, banks will grant loans at a fixed rate of 90% per year, this implies an effective rate of 138.2% per year. With this rate the business is unviable, thanks Miguel Ángel Pesce”.
In addition, it points against the Central for damaging the link that Massa tried to forge with the agro-export sector: “Those who sold soybeans at a dollar of $200 will not be able to buy a MEP dollar or a bag. This measurement was taken halfway, someone sold without knowing this resolution, now it is recalculating. Only human persons are excepted, while legal persons are exposed. In short, the Ministry of Economy took an economic measure to befriend the countryside, while the The Central Bank dynamited that friendship.”
“The proximity of the World Cup forces the Ministry of Economy to make decisionsget the dollars to finance the trips of the Argentines to see the World Cup, or intervene in the market”, anticipates di Stefano on the World Cup scenario and the possible validity of a “qatar dollar“that relieves the pressure on reserves, given the deficit presented by the tourism sector and adds: “ The answer to this question is simple, it will intervene. In the last 12 months, we have had a negative balance of US$4.3 billion in the balance of tourism, this could grow to more than US$7.0 billion if measures are not taken. The intervention could come from limiting the amount of dollars to be spent outside of Argentina, which makes the tiger one more stripe.”
He also anticipates difficulties in importing: “As of December, companies that postponed import payments for 180 days will have to proceed to pay their supplierswe will see if the Central Bank will have the liquidity to meet those obligations. If there are no dollars, we will have to face a commercial default, or we will have to face payments in dollar cash with liquidation, this would lead to a sharp increase in inflation, plus some losses.”
“The internal ones in the Government have weakened Serge Massafailed to impose an economic plan and the Central Bank took the initiative to intervene in the markets, this scares away investments and the arrival of fresh dollars in the country,” adds di Stefano about the crosses between Economy and the Central Bank.
“There’s a real estate laundering up and running, it will have adherents, but it won’t get crowds. The Government is working on a more flexible money laundering regime that adapts to the purchase of used houses, is also working on a laundering for importers. If the country’s solution had been money laundering, Mauricio Macri would still be presidentbut, it has already been shown, that it does not give as many results,” he stressed about the government’s decision to allow access to properties from laundered dollars.
Regarding the monetary policy promoted by the former Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, in comparison with the current one, he underlines a certain continuity: “Monetary and exchange policy remains the same with Sergio Massa as with Martín Guzmánthe difference is that with Guzmán the interest rate ran behind inflation, standing 10 blocks away, now with Sergio Massa the interest rate follows inflation behind, but one block away. The results so far are the same, inflation does not stop and alternative dollars continue to climb higher.”
“The soybean dollar left as a balance an increase in reserves close to US $ 2,500 millionHowever, the monetary liabilities of the Central Bank also rose, at the end of August they were around $11.0 trillion and now we are exceeding $12 trillion. Of this total, $8 trillion are liabilities remunerated at a rate of 75% per year, which, if we measure it effectively, gives us a rate of 107.0% per year. At this rate in a year monetary liabilities could be above $24 trillionwe do not see that reserves can rise at the same rate. If the reserves, one year ahead, were located at US$40,000 million, the convertibility dollar would be located at $600.0, 100% above the current value. This is in line with projected inflation of around 100% for the next 12 months.”
“We do not see structural reforms in the immediate scenario, the deficit is still present, populist measures have not been banished and, although the market continues to trust Minister Sergio Massa, there are not many reasons to think of a structural change on the immediate horizon. If you continue doing the same as in the past, the results will not be different. Courage, you have to live with 100% inflation, alternative dollars at $600 a year ahead and a wholesale dollar that, at some point in the next 180 days, should adjust to a higher rate than the current one, “he concluded. .
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
