From here on, the indicator showed a very strong drop due to the combination of a fall in the price of soybeans in Chicago and the rise in financial dollars after the departure of former Economy Minister, Martín Guzmán. The slate price valued in CCL dollars reached a minimum since October 2020 on July 21, with US$146.3/Tn and later managed to stabilize around US$180/Tn at the end of August.
The Export Incentive Program (PIE) implemented as of September 5, generated a significant recomposition of the purchasing power of the slate price of soybeans valued at the financial dollar. On the first day of the program, this indicator reached a relative maximum of US$256 for each ton of soybean. As of September 16, US$19/Tn is below this value, at US$232.6/Tn.
Thinking about a possible scenario of future valuations of the oilseed, its effective evolution depends on three factors:
a) the price of soybeans in Chicago and its corresponding impact on the local market
b) the effective evolution of the official dollar
c) the effective evolution of the financial dollar (CCL). The difference between b) and c) is what is commonly called the “exchange rate gap”.
The report of the Stock Market
If we take the price of the dollar and soybean futures markets as of September 16, and assume a stable gap between the financial and official dollar based on futures market projections, on October 1 (the first day on which it would stop set the dollar at 200 for settlement of foreign exchange for exports of the soybean complex), the valuation of slate soybeans at the financial dollar could reach US$ 186.2/Tn, below the historical average of the last 10 years, which is US$ 223.6/Tn.
However, if we establish an upward and downward variation range of the exchange rate gap without changes in the future scenarios estimated by the market for the official dollar and the price of soybeans, a fluctuation band could be established for purchasing power of soybeans in terms of the financial dollar between US$174/Tn and US$200/Tn as of October 1. even so, Thinking of a fall in the exchange gap in the coming days, the top of this range (US$200/Tn) is 32.6 dollars below the current price. In other words, if current prices are maintained, by selling a ton of soybeans at the beginning of October, one could buy 32.6 financial dollars less than if the sale takes place in September.
Source: Ambito
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