Here are the main concepts of Woyecheszen:
*In the latest reports, both from the BIS (Bank for International Settlements) and the IMF, this idea of inflation appeared again with a whole structural component behind it.
*We had the pandemic, which was a practically unprecedented macroeconomic shock due to supply and demand, and the truth is that it is rare to talk about inflation in that context.
*The truth is that we returned to that cruising speed (53%), when circulation began to normalize at the end of the pandemic. On top of that, the war added 11 or 12 points to you at the speed you were traveling.
*Later you had your own financial uncertainty, all in that episode that lasted days about debt instruments in pesos. That brought alternative exchange rates to the order of $350.
*When there is an unanchored regime, everyone tries to cover themselves from what is coming, with an uncertainty where you have to try to guess what is going to happen.
*At this moment we have the regime unanchored, we have to anchor it little by little and for this there is no magic.
*The path was always to tend towards macroeconomic normalization, after the uncertainty that was generated with the instruments in pesos.
* There are always errors. At the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022, and in my opinion, the way to anchor (which is under discussion today) was only on the dynamics of the BCRA’s monetary liabilities and on what the debt issued in your currency could be in terms forward sustainability.
*In my opinion, obviously, not having accelerated, not having put rates in positive territory more quickly, partly explains the run on instruments in our currency.
*I celebrate the change that is generated at that moment in terms of coordination and the return to betting on what should have always been bet on.
* Added to this is trying to anchor again with the agreement with the Fund, which for me is something that has been achieved in an unprecedented way in our history. It talks very well with what our history has been and with what we debate within the framework of our political project, because it does not shed light on real spending and pushes on the monetary side.
*The currency is rebuilt by making the whole world look at what the Central Bank is doing. Let him see that everything he is doing is going to be able to be sustained, that rates are in positive territory. There is no magic to this.
*This is step-by-step macroeconomics, as Mostaza Merlo would say. We have an agreement with the Fund that, on the one hand, allows you to reduce fiscal dominance little by little.
* Nobody in the government, nobody in the economic team, nobody in the Central Bank thinks that this can be solved with stocks.
*The agreement gave us time to show that the macro can be accommodated by protecting real spending and public investment.
*The decisions we make here have a lot to do with risk management.
*Having tried to solve the macroeconomic imbalances that Argentina has been dragging for a long time in foreign matters, of cyclical imbalance of the public sector and an inflationary regime with a process of indebtedness in dollars and opening of the capital account is something that went wrong for the third time , As minimum.
*Beware that this was just an implementation problem. I keep hearing that if they come back, they will go faster and more determined.
* The agreement allows us to return to the field. We are on the train. It is necessary to anchor this that was strongly disanchored in the middle of the year.
Source: Ambito
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