Federico Vacarezza, professor of international trade at Southern University, He stressed that there is every chance that the world economy will face the worst energy crisis since the 1973 oil crisis. “Being completely globalized, interdependence means that no one will be exempt from suffering the consequences of a global energy crisis. In that case, the international prices of the products that the region exports are going to fall, because the demand is going to fall”, he maintained.
In this sense, he added: “Just as the quantities exported did not vary too much with Alberto Fernández compared to the last 10 years, they are not going to vary too much now either. What is changing is international food prices, which began to decline three months ago, as shown by the latest FAO indicator for August.”
For his part, Bruno Bonfanti, economic analyst at Ecolatina, pointed out that by 2023 the outlook becomes even more challenging than the current one due to both internal and external factors. “Regarding the external front, a further strengthening of the dollar worldwide as a result of the tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy and the latent risks of a possible global recession would clearly play against our exports, affecting them both in prices and in amounts. In addition to this, the local environment would not be favorable at all, given that for the 2022-23 campaign the possibility of a continuation of the drought that will once again affect the volume of agricultural exports, our main source of foreign exchange income, is not ruled out. ”, he warned.
As for the local level, Sergio Chouza, director of the Sarandí consultancy, stressed that “there are problems for the export sector due to the disincentives that the exchange market implies, despite the fact that you continue to provide tailored suits for specific export complexes, such as the dollar soy”. And he added: “Until the obstacles of the distortions of the stocks and the 100% gap are resolved, you will not have a significant export potential that will make a difference in the entry and flow of constant dollars, and, therefore, I think the Budget estimate of more than US$12 billion in positive trade balance next year is too optimistic.”
Regarding imports, Chouza stressed that “they cannot be stopped because activity levels would fall, given that there is a strong inelasticity with respect to some sectors that do or do need them to function.” In fact, he stated that, on the contrary, there was an increase in the elasticity with respect to economic activity: “Historically, the elasticity of imports with respect to national income used to be every 1 point that the level of activity increased, imports grew by 3 points. Currently, it is higher, so there is a factor that puts a lot of pressure on you if you want to keep growing.”
Source: Ambito
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