“Inflation for September gives us 6.7%, with a rise of 7.6% in food. There were strong increases in transportation as well, due to increases in taxis and the subway, and increases in education,” he summarized to Ambit Damián Di Pace, director of the consulting firm Focus Market.
The food, indeed, grew above the general level. In fact, according to the survey carried out by the firm LCG, this item presented a monthly inflation of 8% average and 7.8% measured “from end to end”. Vegetables climbed 12.3%; while dairy products and eggs rose 10.5% and meat 8%.
For its part, according to the C&T retail price survey for the GBA, inflation last month was 6.8%. “The latter caused the twelve-month variation to climb to 82.8%, the highest since December 1991,” they noted from the consultant. “As usual in the months of September, clothing was the component with the highest monthly increase due to the change of season (13%)”, they detailed from the firm, and added: “In housing, the increase in gas and electricity derived from the elimination of subsidies for various users influenced. Food and beverages, the most relevant item, rose 7%. Inside there were general increases, but oils, vegetables and non-alcoholic beverages stood out. Meat accelerated significantly in the second half of the month.”
For its part, the IPC of Libertad y Progreso showed an advance of 6.9% monthly. the category “Food and non-alcoholic beverages” was the one that had the greatest impact on the increase in the general index. “This month there was pressure on the price index due to the removal of energy subsidies and the updating of regulated rates such as public transport. It is also necessary to highlight the increases in both food and education, which are essential expenses for a household and generate greater difficulties for the salary to resist until the end of the month”, explained Lautaro Moschet, Economist of Libertad y Progreso.
For his part, Eugenio Marí, Chief Economist of the firm, pointed out that “Argentina decidedly entered a new inflationary regime, with the price level running at 7% per month for the third consecutive month.” “And there are no signs that it is going to slow down. In September, the BCRA increased its interest-bearing debt by $1.3 trillion, which means that the total amount of interest-bearing debt accrues $480,256 million per month. If we add to this a State with a fiscal deficit, there is little reason to think about a slowdown in emissions and prices”, he underlined. In addition, he stressed that the rise in food prices will put pressure “Even more about the poverty data for the second semester.”
Precisely, in its usual survey of retail prices, the consulting firm Eco Go estimated that food rose in September by around 7.3% per month. Thus, he projected general inflation in the order of 6.7%.
What to expect in October
“What we are seeing for October is that inflation would maintain a floor of 6%, as in November and December. In October, services will rise above goods: regulated prices weigh heavily, there are increases in water, electricity and gas, telephony, cable, private schools, fuels. This is going to hit hard in the service indicator, which is going to have the biggest increase of the year during this month”, said Di Pace.
On Saturday, the fuel prices increased by 6% on average across the country. “Depending on the evolution of the variables that affect the formation of fuel prices, YPF made, as of 0 am on Saturday, an increase in fuel prices of 6% on average for the country in gasoline and diesel. The adjustment includes compensation for the increase in taxes on fuels and increases in biofuel prices,” they indicated from the state oil company.
These Increases in fuels have both a direct and indirect impact on priceshitting not only when it comes to filling the tank, but then often transfers to transportation costs, for example.
Besides public services and the heading “telecommunications”, increases are also expected for this month of the prepaid (up to 11.5%), the expenses (for the payment of part of the extraordinary bonus to building managers and the impact of the removal of subsidies on services for common spaces), in addition to the aforementioned increases in private schools.
It is in this context that it is estimated that October inflation is once again above 6%. While from the Government they also hope that in the last two months the rise in the CPI could pierce that figure and be around 5%.
By case, according to the latest data published in the REM of the Central Bank, consultants estimate inflation of 5.5% for November and 5.8% for December. Therefore, for the last month of the year, inflation will reach 95% year-on-year.
Source: Ambito
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