The objective, which has the support of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), remains the same: encourage savings in the local currency, sterilize the pesos injected into the economy and bring the rate closer to the rate of depreciation of the official exchange rate. It would be the tenth increase so far this year.
One reason why the market considers that the decision is pertinent is the monthly yield of the fixed term that is still behind inflation. In addition, the tense calm of the financial dollars could be used – despite the fact that they range between $290-$310) to contain a possible jump in the exchange rate due to the pressure registered by the Central Bank to accumulate reserves after the soybean dollar.
The expectation of a new rate hike seems to be the growth incentive that was registered in fixed terms in September. According to LCG Consulting, time deposits grew 2.9% m/m in real terms, maintaining the upward trend, although less than in August. In contrast, UVA time deposits registered a decrease of 10% for the second consecutive month.
From the consultant delphos-investment via Leonardo Chialva They realize that the inflation data will define the decision to be made: “A figure well above 7% could encourage new rises. If it comes out in line with what some consultants have been showing, I would not see the need to make another adjustment. It will depend a lot on the final data. If it starts with 6 there are definitely no changes, if it exceeds 7.5% then I think they might have to adjust some points”.
“I believe that the BCRA would raise rates again soon, possibly after the inflation data, in search of continuing to improve remuneration to pesos. This is crucial to try to keep the exchange rate calm in this last quarter, where in addition to more pesos there would be a lower supply of foreign currency accentuated by the advancement that the “soybean dollar” implied, and there the strategy would be mainly to defend the accumulated reserves, “he said. the operator Gustavo Ber in dialogue with Ámbito.
Another source consulted by Ambit revealed that there is no univocal definition in the market. “Some see rise and others are not so sure. What yes, the secondary through January Lede is already pricing you an increase of 320 bps, so the market assigns a higher probability to an increase. In that sense, Lede January is attractive. If they raise the rate, part of the movement is already valued and if they don’t raise it, there is room to compress”.
Source: Ambito
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