In interannual terms, the IMA registered an increase of 2.9%to accumulate in the first eight months of the year an improvement of 6.6%. “The dynamics of the last month reflects a disparate trend in the components of the IMA. While cement shipments, commercial loans, diesel consumption, social security collection, imported amounts and the FIEL industrial production index maintain annual growth, the demand for electricity, exported amounts and retail sales are gaining ground negative. This latest signal is an early warning of a clear slowdown in the economy starting in July,” they added from ITE.
In the same line, the General Activity Index prepared by the consulting firm Orlando Ferreres had marked a decrease of 0.1% in the seasonally adjusted measurement. Compared to the same month of the previous year, meanwhile, in August an expansion of 6.4% was registered.
“Activity during August did not show an improvement compared to what we have been observing in recent months, leaving the accumulated growth of the eight months elapsed at 5.9%. Among the sectors with the greatest impact on the progress of economic activity, mining and quarrying stands out again as the one with the highest growth, while commerce and construction were the other two sectors that recorded greater progress than the general one”, they pointed out. from signature.
And, looking ahead to the latter part of 2022, the projections are not too encouraging: “The expectation is low for the remaining months of the year; the acceleration of inflation, the lack of dollars and the lukewarm fiscal measures of the government do not seem to leave room for a level of activity higher than the current one”.
September data and projections
The first data sectors that are known September, meanwhile, support the hypothesis that the economy entered a phase of stagnation. One of them is linked to consumption: is that according to CAME data, retail sales fell 3.5% year-on-year in September and 1.4% in the monthly comparison.
Another data that showed a negative variation in the monthly comparison was that of lCement shipments, which registered a contraction of 1.1% in September compared to August. According to data from the Association of Portland Cement Manufacturers (AFCP), however, in the year-on-year comparison, an increase of 8.6% was seen, to accumulate an improvement of 11% in the first nine months of the year. As it is one of the main inputs in the sector, the dispatch of cement is usually considered as a kind of advance payment for the data on general construction activity.
It is in this context that Ecolatina advanced, after the EMAE data for July, that in the rest of the year “the evolution of the economy will show a cooling”. “The prospects for the last months of the year will be affected by a continuation of restrictions on imports, which would limit the expansion of the domestic market (lower supply of imported goods) and would generate complications in production processes (due to fewer inputs available). Also, the acceleration of inflation will hit income more strongly, while the adjustment of public service rates will reduce disposable income for households to consume”, they detailed from the signature.
For his part, Eugenio Marí, Chief Economist of the Fundación Libertad y Progreso, analyzed that 2022 will have two well-defined phases, with a first semester that was one of “expansion” and a second semester “where the engines that helped in the first half of the year will no longer be running.”
“This declining trend is explained by international factors, such as the fall in the terms of trade and the slowdown in international demand, and other local factors, which include the growing uncertainty.re, the acceleration of inflation, the production problems derived from the lack of access to imported inputs and the drought that affects the agro-industrial activity”, remarked Marí.
Source: Ambito
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