In this regard, in the economic team there is concern about what they consider “the attempt by some sectors to generate chaos in the face of stabilization on the reserves front and the new fall in inflation expected for this month”.
Conditions
“Without reservations there is no plan that can be carried out” economists explain. The first actions of the new economic team focused, to a large extent, on recomposing the external sector.
In this sense, they were the ratification of the agreement with the International Monetary Fund and the incentives such as the “soybean dollar” or the regimes for the energy sector, mining and the knowledge industry – sectors capable of “generate dollars”-.
Also obtaining support from multilateral credit organizations for the country – a loan of 700 million dollars was recently announced by the Inter-American Development Bank and progress with the Paris Club (in the government they hope to close a new agreement by the end of of month). Currently, Argentina is negotiating a debt refinancing of US$2.4 billion, through which it will try to extend terms and reduce the interest rate (9%).
To advance in a stabilization plan, the economic conduction also considers it necessary have political support -that they approve the Budget-, employer and trade union. In this sense, some leaders of the small union table think that with inflation approaching 100%, it is necessary to implement measures to avoid falling into hyperinflation. That is, consensus about the need to “do something” and as quickly as possible.
In any case, the immediate expectation in the Ministry of Economy is that when the INDEC announces in the next few days, the September price index registers a new deceleration standing below the 7% of August and the 7.4% left by July, it is estimated that it could be closer to 6.7%
The presumption was strengthened after knowing on Wednesday the price index of the City of Buenos Aires (IPC-CABA) which marked an increase of 5.6%, moderating its dynamism from 7.7% in July and 6.2% in August. Although there are usually differences between the CABA CPI and the National CPI prepared by INDEC, the deceleration of inflation in the Capital in the last month is greater than expected.
In any case, the forecasts of private analysts, reflected in the Survey of Market Expectations (REM), They point out that inflation would not fall below 6% in the remainder of the year (2022 is projected to end at 100.3%).
In media of the Palacio de Hacienda they point out that the behavior of prices is strongly influenced by what is called “inflationary inertia” and, from this point of view, They consider key to coordinate with the different economic actors a gradual reduction of the increases.
Source: Ambito
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