For example, the IPC GBA of the consultancy Ecolatina showed a growth of 6.3% between the first fortnight of October and the same period in September, slowing down 1 pp compared to the previous record. “Within the index, the chapters with the greatest evolution were Clothing (10.6%); and Medical care and health expenses (8.6%), driven by increases in prepaid. On the contrary, the smallest variations were seen in Other Goods and Services (2.5%) and in Education (3.7%)”, the study pointed out.
“The Food and Beverages chapter was above the general level (6.7%). Within it, the increases in Vegetables (23.0%); Oils (10.1%); Fruits (8.1%); milk (7.6%); Noodles and pasta (7.5%) and Candies, Sweets and Cocoa (7.5%)”, he added.
With this scenario, from the firm they maintained that expects the index to “slow down” in the second part of the month, so it would register a variation in the area of 6% in October“accumulating 88% in the first ten months of the year”.
“Although core inflation once again showed a slowdown -indicator of the general price level trend-, the high inflationary inertia is reflected in a speed of price adjustment greater than that of previous monthsadded to shorter renegotiation terms in both formal and informal contracts, which leaves as a result an inflationary dynamic that is difficult to disarm in the short term”, they maintained from Ecolatina.
On this basis, they detailed, “the last quarter of the year will maintain a high floor, with a sustained crawling peg at high levels and without an anchor that stabilizes expectations on the horizon, providing greater persistence to the inflationary phenomenon.” “Consequently, we expect inflation to approach 100% by the end of the year.”they concluded.
Surveys
In this context, from the consultancy S&T pointed to Ambit that Inflation in October will be around 6.5%, with food items climbing above the general level again: it is estimated that they will rise around 7%.
Similar is the projection of Eco Go, which after the survey of retail prices for the second week of the month estimated that food will rise 6.9% and general inflation will be 6.5%.
“Regulated products drove the general indicator for the month upwards, highlighting increases in prepaid (11.53%), electricity rates (18.2%), gas (10.35%) and water (10%), domestic service ( 7.5%), telephony, internet and television (19.8%) and fuels (6% average), among others”, they highlighted.
For its part, from LCG they indicated that in the first two weeks of October the survey of prices of foods carried out by the firm registered an average increase of 2.2% weekly. “This is a monthly rate of 9%. If this figure is validated, it represents a contribution of 2.6 pp to general inflation”, they explained.
“To these rises is added the 4% increase in fuels at the beginning of the month, the authorization of an 11% increase in the fees of the Prepaid and the expected increases in rates gas (approximately 10.4%) and electricity (14.9%) that would contribute a marginal value of 0.2 pp, but there are still no signs of its implementation this month”, they added from the firm. For what they projected, also, inflation around 6% monthly for October.
Source: Ambito
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