The fine numbers are not there yet because the campaign is still underway and the situation of the crop is far from improving, in just one month the Rosarina entity reduced its prospects for the harvest by 9% and that is why the production can still be minor to continue the drought in the core zone.
The latest survey of the Rosario Stock Exchange is forceful and also revealing in how much the farmers who bet on the cereal are losing: “With a drought that continues to affect almost 100% of the core area and very strong late frosts, the week last year the question arose as to whether the region could reach 20 quintals per average hectare. The response from producers and technicians this week clearly shows that it will be even lower: 2022/23 will be the worst campaign in the last 12 years and by far. The lowest record was 27 quintals per hectare (in 2012/13) and today it is estimated almost 10 quintals less: 18 quintals per hectare (qq/ha). Unfortunately, there is a good chance that this yield will continue to be cut in the short term. With these numbers there will be very important losses. The calculations show that the losses in rented fields with productivities from 20 qq/ha to zero – that is, for plots that will not be harvested – correspond to losses of 300 to 800 dollars per hectare. Where the wheat has been lost by 100%, the loss is 606 dollars per hectare in own fields and 867 dollars in rented fields. There are already 192,000 hectares of lost area. But massive area losses are beginning to be estimated in Pergamino, Venado Tuerto, Bigand and Rosario, so a good part of the 400,000 hectares in poor condition may be added to the category of non-harvestable area.”
This scenario is not only harming wheat production, but it is also delaying production plantings for corn and raising some uncertainties for the soybean campaign, which without a doubt in 2023, if prices and the weather are good, will have to definitely be the savior in such a complex production scenario.
Regarding weather forecasts, the Rosario entity advances: “So far the first month of spring has not caused positive changes in the rainfall pattern. The good news is that short-term forecasts indicate, for the next few days, a significant pulse of instability over much of the center and north of the country, including the province of Córdoba and part of Santa Fe. Developments, in general, will be moderate but the probability of rains and storms of varied intensity that could be intense in the north of Entre Ríos and the center of Santa Fe is not ruled out. If these projections are validated, this more significant and generalized contribution of water would very favorably improve the scenario to face the planning of the postponed sowings of the coarse”.
A separate chapter is the situation of livestock. As a result of the drought, more than 12 million heads of cattle herds are complicated by the lack of pasture to feed themselves and that is why many producers are sending the animals to slaughter earlier, which would generate not only a drop in the herd for next year but also on the availability of meat.
Source: Ambito
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