“There is no way that in 2023 we will get rid of a three-digit inflation scenario, a rise in the wholesale exchange rate of the same magnitude, and an exchange rate gap above 100%.DiStefano said.
In his report, the specialist analyzed the situation that Argentina is going through. He clarifies that, to survive, Argentina should have a fiscal surplus and sufficient reserves at 20%. Currently, Argentina has a fiscal deficit equivalent to 4.3% of GDP and reserves are 7.9% of GDP.
Another factor that stands out is the increase in debt. If the amount of the Treasury and the Central Bank are added, the total debt amounts to US$436,417. For the specialist, this will lead to a monetary devaluation due to the drop in reserves in the national treasury. Beyond the bad news, for Di Stefano “the best scenario for Serge Massa it is a year with a primary deficit of 2.9% and interest payments of 1.6% of GDP”. However, he adds that “the solutions are not there for a situation that is difficult to navigate”.
What is expected for the dollar in November
October began without the soybean dollar at $200, but the dollars fluctuate between $300 without major changes. According to specialists, the dollar is cheap in relation to inflation.
The Executive decided to establish new exchange rates for each sector. It was the so-called Coldplay dollar, Luxury dollar and Qatar dollar. But despite the new changes that it generated in the economy, the financiers do not seem to have been affected.
“Today, when contrasting values, it is convenient to buy financial dollars before carding. But that relationship could be reversed if the demand accumulates. “Tourists are invited to pay for the card with dollar bills. It is a solution so that the State does not lose reserves, however, it would generate a strong demand for alternative dollars, which would lead to an increase in the exchange rate gap,” added financial analyst Salvador di Stefano.
“The Government will face a credit event of the debt in local currency before the end of the mandate. The BCRA’s reaction may be to artificially support demand. However, the base demand that does not stop falling is worrying, with which the pressure on the market of the CCL dollar and the MEP will appear again sooner rather than later”.
Source: Ambito
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