primary deficit
The first parameter considered is the primary deficit (nominal), where the goal agreed for him third trimester of 2022 was located in $1,142 billionequivalent to 1.3% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
In this sense, “the accumulated primary deficit reached $1,096 billion, therefore, the goal was met with a margin of $45,948 million, remaining 4% below the maximum proposed”.
During this time, “revenue grew at 93% annually (+29 percentage points compared to the second quarter) while spending did so at 71% per year (-8 points), thus allowing the Government to progressively close the fiscal gap.
The transition scheme soybean dollar “allowed to exponentially increase the collectionwith export rights that grew at 222% real annual in September”.
In addition, the analysis highlighted that the primary outcome It showed itself surplus by $5,284 million for September under the IMF criteria.
However, if one takes into account income derived from primary placements over par as real income, the surplus would have reached $80,624 million. This responds to the fact that the rents derived from primary debt placements above par explain other source of income.
However, “given that these have an accounting income, but not a real one, the IMF excludes them from the calculation of the primary result“, they clarified.
real income
The second parameter taken by the UBA indicator was the income in real termswhere the goal agreed for him trimester It was from $7,763 billion.
“In this indicator, the value was $7,955 billion, with which the goal was reached with a margin of $191,946 million, what does a mean 2% above the minimum proposed,” the report noted.
During the third quarter of 2022 national collection grew 77% accumulated year after year, equivalent to one real increase of around 7% per year, 2 percentage points less than the previous quarter.
From the Ministry of Economy they advanced that in September, there was a primary surplus of $5,284.2 million for the accounts of the National Public Sector. Thus, the accumulated primary deficit to the third quarter was $1,096,052 million, which implies compliance with the fiscal goal stipulated by the IMF for the third quarter, through extended facilities.
Monetary issue
The third parameter to consider is the monetization (monetary issue) derived from advances from the Central Bank to the Treasury. here the goal accumulated agreement for the third quarter was a ceiling of $665.4 billion, while the effective issuance was $620,051 million.
Namely, the goal was reached with a margin of $45,349 million, 7% below the proposed maximum.
Since taking office in August, the Economy Minister Sergio Massastuck to the program with the IMF and announced that would not use more advances from the Central Bank so as not to monetize the economy.
However, an undesired effect of the parallel measurement of the soybean dollar implemented in September to attract reserves, is that “yes caused an injection of money of $1.1 billion“, They indicated from the RA Center.
The economists noted that “although This data is not computed for the measurement of the monetary issue goalsince it was not used to finance the Treasuryif you have impacts in the amount of money that circulates and, therefore, in prices”.
And the money issued that is not demanded by the public will be added to the stock of interest-bearing liabilities of the BCRA (LELIQ), for which today a 107% annual effective rate.
net reserves
The fourth parameter was net reserves, where the original goal for the third trimester implied a accumulation of US$4.1 billion.
However, in view of a more adverse international context, the IMF modified it again, reducing it to US$3.6 billionjust as the goal of fourth trimester was revised down from US$5,800 to US$5 billion.
“In this sense, the Government seems to have met the goal even with a margin in favor. While the new revised goal was US$3.6 billion, managed to accumulate reserves for US$4,627 million according to IMF measurementsmeaning that the objective was achieved with a margin of US$1,027 million (29% above the agreed minimum),” the report concluded.
Source: Ambito
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