1. Continuity of lagging consumption after the sanitary restrictions of the previous year, “where the greater demand for services associated with recreation and leisure prevails as a result of a certain “revenge consumption” that extends over time due to the psychological traces left by the In this line, it should be noted that, for example, only restaurants account for around 7-8% of total private consumption.
2. In turn, the sharp rise in inflation throughout the first half could have had a positive impact on the demand for certain consumer goods (mainly durable, but also essential) and services, revitalizing the effects “Pesos burn” and “save by consuming”, in a scenario of a strong negative real interest rate during most of the semester and restrictions on savings in dollars. This was accompanied by real family incomes that remained relatively stable: for example, the real salary of registered workers grew 2.6% yoy on average in the first half of 2022 thanks to the loose parity and the drag effect that it left the end of the previous year.
Second semester: what to expect
As the report highlights, some of the sectoral consumption indicators began to show stagnation, or even falls: supermarket sales stagnated in the latest available data (-0.2% yoy in August); SME retail sales exhibited two consecutive year-on-year falls (they fell 3.5% yoy, 2.1% yoy and 3.5% yoy in July, August and September, respectively) and according to Scentia, mass consumption fell in September (- 0.8% yoy) for the first time in fifteen months.
In the second half of the year, economic activity would slow down its rate of improvement, but the impacts of the aforementioned government measures (for example, greater restrictions on imports and interest rate hikes) are having a smaller than expected negative effect on the economy in general. Also, private consumption in aggregate terms will continue to be positive, mainly thanks to the fact that in statistical terms there is a greater weighting of services, and this occurs despite the fact that some sectoral indicators show signs of stagnation or even falls.
Source: Ambito
David William is a talented author who has made a name for himself in the world of writing. He is a professional author who writes on a wide range of topics, from general interest to opinion news. David is currently working as a writer at 24 hours worlds where he brings his unique perspective and in-depth research to his articles, making them both informative and engaging.
