From Analytica they pointed out to this medium that the inflation projection for October is 6.9%. Somewhat lower was for Fundación Libertad y Progreso, which estimated a price increase of around 6.8%. The same figure was found in the C&T retail price survey for GBA. “It was higher than the 6.2% in September and the 3.7% in October 2021. In this way, the twelve-month variation rose to 87.4%”they remarked from the signature.
“In October, the weight of services is one of the strongest in recent times, due to the number and intensity of increases that have occurred in electricity, gas, prepaid, private schools, telephony, cable, internet, expenses, among others.. In turn, many of these increases in public service rates determined price increases in the value added chain of SMEs in the production of goods,” explained Damián Di Pace, director of Focus Market.
In this sense, from C&T they pointed out that “Housing was the item with the highest monthly increase due to the combination of adjustments in electricity, gas and water with a new increase in the salaries of building managers”.
“Health was driven by a new adjustment in prepaid and the sustained increase in medicines. Clothing grew somewhat less than in September, but at a good pace due to the change in season”, they highlighted from C&T, detailing: “Food and beverages grew 6.4%, with the former moderating slightly compared to September, but the latter increasing their rate of rise”.
Precisely, when analyzing the evolution of food, the basket revealed by the consulting firm LCG presented an increase of 7.2% measured “from end to end” in October. The items that rose the most in October were “dairy products and eggs”, which rose 12.4%; “vegetables” did 11.3%, and “bakery products, cereals and pasta”, 9.4%. Meanwhile, fruits climbed 7.8% and meats, 5.4%.
For Focus Market, meanwhile, food rose 7.3%. “Mass consumer products have seen strong double-digit growth in several basic categories such as food, beverages, cleaning supplies and personal hygiene. The other side of this price increase is the drop in consumption in nearby mouths. The income of Argentines is marked by informality or self-employment, while the focus of the public sector is on registered wage earners. In the first case, the loss in real purchasing power is 7% so far in 2022,” Di Pace said.
“Inflation is finding a very inflexible downward floor of 6% for the coming months. While the budget forecasts inflation of 60% by 2023, private consultants and the IMF project it between 90% and 95%. There are still many relative prices in the economy to correct, including the official exchange rate, which accelerated its devaluation process to 6% in the last month, still below inflation for the period. While inflation will be close to 90% year-on-year in October, the exchange rate was devalued 55%”, concluded Di Pace.
What is expected for November
Although some private projections show that inflation will slow down in November and would be around 6.5%the announcement of a price freeze made by Serge Massa could, paradoxically, add pressure to prices this month.
Is that the Minister of Economy announced that a “plan to try to stabilize consumer prices in general, in a block of four months”, which would go from December to March.
The fact of advancing this type of measure, said an economist, can give the margin for many of these products that will enter the freeze to rise at an even higher rate before the measure is put into operation.
It is that, as the analyst summed up, when a measure of this type is advanced, “decision makers react”. “You have to surprise and not give time to react so that something that seeks to cut the inertia has an effect,” they stressed.
Massa indicated that the objective of this program is “That allows people to go to the supermarket with a certain peace of mind and security”, regarding the prices of personal hygiene products, food and mass consumption. The agreement, he detailed, is “for four months with a group that represents 86% of what we consume without moving (prices).”
Source: Ambito
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