For his part, Aldo Abram, director of the Fundación Libertad y Progreso, analyzed: “I think that with inflation that is accelerating, which aims to exceed 110% year-on-year in the next six months and is above 100% this year , it will be very difficult for salaries to beat inflation. Even with the reopening of the joint. It may be that some sectors are allowed to beat or tie inflation, but most surely the only thing they are going to achieve is to moderate the loss of purchasing power”.
“And the bad news is that the more they force salary increases, in a situation of impoverishment like the one we live in now, the reality is that those who lose are the informal sectors and those who do not have a joband they obviously go to the informalityThey are the ones who lose the most purchasing power,” added Abram.
In this sense, Hernán Letcher, director of CEPA, pointed out that “What is of primary concern is the evolution of unregistered wages, which are not recovered”. “What was seen in the INDEC indicator for August is that the registered salary, with arrears, running behind, manages to some extent to evolve more or less on par with inflation,” said the economist, who added: “With which, it is difficult to see a sensible recovery, due to the inflation levels. But the main problem continues to be the salary of the unregistered, which fails to reduce the gap against inflation.
Salaries, in real fall
In this context, from the ACM consultancy they pointed out that, “in the remainder of the year, It is expected that wage dynamics in the different sectors will continue to register the deterioration observed up to now. The scenario of inflationary acceleration in this second part of the year leaves a limited margin for the recovery of real income”.
Along the same lines, from LCG they maintained: “With a projected inflation floor of 100% per year as of December, it is difficult to propose a scenario in which wages win the race against prices (so far, most of the paritarians have set a average increase of 75% per year). In this sense, we expect that in the annual average wages in the formal sector will fall by around 1.5% in real terms, consistent with a greater deterioration towards the end of the year, orbiting values of -9% real measured December against December”.
“Even with evidence of a recovery in the level of activity, all this is combined with a high level of nominality and a significant delay in the level of real wages that has not managed to recover levels similar to those of the last increase in activity in 2017”, detailed from LCG, and concluded: “In this sense, we don’t see this recovery starting until at least next year. When the correction of the backwardness of the exchange rate occurs, this will have a negative reflection on the level of wages”.
Source: Ambito
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