The drought hit all grain producing areaswhich led the Government, after a request from the producers, to enable the extension for wheat shipmentsto reduce the impact of the water deficit and reduce the risk of shortages in the domestic market.
The international scene added pressure given the volatility of recent days in the priceswho reacted to the decision russian to abandon the export agreement with Ukrainewhich he later decided to join again.
In the province, the production of the planted areas would be 2.22 million tonswhich at the current price would imply a loss for the province of $496 millionwhile the gross losses of farmers would be $378 million.
Nevertheless, the high prices would ensure a positive gross margin for cultivationalthough it will be a third of the obtained in the last campaign.
product of the moisture shortage in the soil at the time of planting, this winter the implanted area was the lowest in 9 campaignswith just 888,500 hectares, while due to the water deficit, the harvestable area would be 588,100 hectares, only 66% of the total implantedand the provincial yield would average 17.4 quintals per hectare.
“Only registered you underperform this estimate a decade agoin the 2008/09 and 2009/10 seasons, which were 16 and 14 quintals per hectare, respectively”, recalled the BCCBA.
With this scenario, the production of this campaign could be just over a million tons, the lowest value of the last twelve campaignsand a fifth of the maximum achieved in the province of 5.1 million tons.
The available price would show an increase of 48% compared to the previous cycle, standing at US$354 per ton. “This lower production does not allow us to take advantage of the high harvest prices that are expected. The export value as of December 2022 is estimated at US$423 per ton, 33% higher than the previous campaign and 73% higher than the historical average (2008/09 – 2021/22)”, reported the entity.
With these numbers, the gross value estimated by the BCCBA for production 2022/23 would be US$432 millionUS$201 million less than the historical average and US$855 million lower than the previous campaign.
On the other hand, at the available price farmers gross incomewhich would be the portion of the total income that would be kept by the producers, marketers and transporters to the cereal port, it would be only $362 millionsome US$600 million lower than the 2021/22 campaign and the lowest value in 9 campaigns.
However, the rehabilitation of the “humanitarian corridor” to allow exports from the Black Sea have led the international price of wheat to values closer to u$s300. And that would reduce the estimated profitability.
Source: Ambito
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