“Despite the aforementioned raid of 27 months of uninterrupted nominal growth, the portfolio in real terms continues to contract and each month that passes, the percentages of nominal growth seem to be further away from the growth of the month’s consumer price indices. We will have to wait until wage values are updated and we see a drop in lending interest rates to appreciate a recovery of balances in real terms,” he explained. Guillermo Barbero, Partner of First Capital Group.
Credit card operations closed in a total amount of $1,879,365 million, which means an increase of 4.6% compared to the end of last month, some $82,238 million above September and also below expected inflation. The year-on-year growth reached 66.6%.
“Despite the development achieved by the tools commonly known as “online” loans, in recent years a greater predisposition of the public to use the financing that comes from credit cards has been observed. The lower rate applied to them by the regulations undoubtedly influences these behaviors”, he continued.
Regarding the mortgage credit lines, including those adjusted for inflation/UVA, during October they grew 1% with respect to the stock of $363,183 million from the previous month, accumulating a total balance at closing of $366,661 million and a year-on-year increase of 39%. in nominal terms.
“As we mentioned in previous reports, this line is not significant and is losing relative importance in the market, being mainly driven by Banks owned by the National, Provincial and Municipal States,” Barbero explained.
The pledge credit line presented a portfolio balance at the end of October 2022 of $429,608 million, growing 110.4% versus the portfolio at the end of the same month of 2021 of $204,160 million.
“The variation with respect to the balance of the previous month marked a rise of 2.6%, accumulating two years of consecutive monthly increases. However, we must point out that during the last quarter, the monthly variations have been lower than the inflation of each month.therefore we see that the real growth impulse of this segment is in danger of being assimilated to the rest of the credit portfolios”, he assured.
In relation to commercial loans, this line increased its balance by 7.4% compared to last month, placing it with a portfolio stock of $2,279,920 million. Compared to the same month of the previous year, the increase is 84.3%, practically in the same values as the expected inflation for the period.
“The notorious reactivation of commercial credit that occurred this month could be motivated by greater demand, as well as influenced by the rise in active interest rates and the impossibility of paying all of them, proceeding to their capitalization” , clarified First Capital Group.
Regarding loans in dollars, compared to last month, the total amount has presented a negative variation of 1.9%, maintaining the downward trend shown since June 2021 interrupted during February, May and June 2022. Regarding the interannual variation, it presented a decrease of 23.2%. The stock of loans in dollars is US$ 3,604 million. 64.2% of the total debt in foreign currency continues to be the commercial line, which fell 29.5% in the year and decreased 1.8% compared to the previous month.
Credit cards recorded a year-on-year increase of 69.3%, although with an irregular monthly behavior. In October there was a decrease of 19.9% compared to the previous month. “The limitations on the use of the card for purchases in installments and the higher taxes on the exchange rate to be used acted as a powerful brake on the use of plastic abroad and the values of the portfolio are well below the balances that reached before the pandemic,” the report said.
Source: Ambito
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