The base scenario of the firm, which is a source of consultation for politics and the red circle, contemplates for the whole of 2023 higher incomes by the soybean and peanut complexes that could compensate for the falls in wheat, sunflower and peanut to configure a kind of technical tie and that the agribusiness reaches export levels similar to 2022. It will depend in part on what happens with the rains in the next two months. In any case, it will make the section to travel until March more complex.
The Central Bank sold dollars again this Tuesday, It was about US$145 million. November is traditionally a deficit month, but due to the low level of reserves, the room for maneuver seems to be less. For this reason, they aim to “take care” of the currencies that accumulated in September.
In this context, they closely monitor the impacts of the new surcharge on credit card expenses abroad, better known as the “Qatar dollar”. Since the implementation of the measure, the use of plastics abroad has plummeted by nearly 50% and official projections speak of savings of US$400 million per month. Although the figure could be higher during this month, precisely because of the World Cup.
On the other hand, rush lThe implementation of the payment of cards to MEP dollars for tourists who come from abroad. This more competitive exchange rate would guide foreign exchange from receptive tourism to the formal market. November and December are high season. They hope that until the end of the year some 1,100 million can enter through this route that without the measure would have ended up in caves or hotel concierges.
At the same time, new disbursements from multilateral organizations are expected. They believe they could add another $3bn in the coming months to cross the gap to the new thick crop. The programming corresponds mainly to what was agreed with the Inter-American Development Bank and to a lesser extent to the World Bank and CAF.
Another chapter of this scenario is linked to imports. The room for maneuver to “step on” the purchase of inputs without suffering the activity is limited. However, the new Import System of the Argentine Republic (SIRA) put on standby some US$2,600 million in precautionary measures granted by the Justice that were pending granting. The largest volumes were even withdrawn by the plaintiffs themselves. In the Government they point out that a large part of those dollars were going to end up in overstocking and business with the exchange rate gap.
Finally, the debate continues on instruments to speed up the liquidation of foreign exchange-generating sectors. Massa spoke this week of “a differential exchange rate” for regional economies, although that could also materialize through a drop in withholdings and/or a rise in refunds. There are those who already propose in the internal debate to work on tools for sectors that can contribute foreign currency in the short term.
Source: Ambito
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