The British economy decreased 0.2% in the third quarter and the recession looms

The British economy decreased 0.2% in the third quarter and the recession looms

The manufacturing activity fell from July to Septemberbut the sector of services remained without changes.

The ONS mentions rising costs as a factor that weighs on the production of companies. Inflation is set around 10% in the UK, the highest in the G7.

“We are not escaping the global difficulties related to high inflation and slow growth due above all to Russia’s illegal war” in Ukraine and gas supply limitations, which have pushed up energy prices and inflation, reacted the finance Minister, Jeremy Hunt.

To achieve long-term growth we have to curb inflation, balance the books and roll back debt“, he underlined, defending a hard budget line which raises fears of imminent austerity policies when he presents his budget next week.

The month of September was also marked in the United Kingdom by the financial turbulence caused by the controversial ultra-liberal economic plan of the short-lived Conservative Prime Minister Liz Truss. The financial crisis that broke out in the UK and caused the pound sterling and Treasury bonds to collapse was triggered after Truss presented his budget for tax cuts and increased spending.

This was replaced at the end of Octoberafter less than two months in office, by the also conservative Rishi Sunak, who promised to correct the “mistakes” of his predecessor and a strong imprint of containing inflation.

However, according to analysts, the British economy is headed for recessiontechnically defined as at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Paul Dalesof Capital Economics, considered that even eliminating the effect of the holiday, “real GDP shows a decrease in the third quarter and we believe that this marks the beginning of the recession“.

The decline in activity in September was more pronounced than analysts expected, he said for his part Samuel Tombs, of Pantheon Macro in dialogue with Reuters. “The British economy is back at the bottom of the G7weighed down by its monetary and fiscal policy, and by the significant long-term damage caused by covid and Brexit,” he said.

The whole of the European Union (EU), the euro zone and most of the countries of the bloc will probably enter a recession in the fourth quarter of this yearnoted this Friday the European Comission in their economic forecasts of the boreal autumn.

Source: Ambito

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