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Thursday, December 8, 2022

the gurus of the city analyze what can happen in 2023 and 2024

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For 2023, the projections in the inflation They are not positive at all.

  • EcoGO: 127%
  • BancTrust: 118.8%
  • FAITHFUL: 118.2%
  • OJF Study (Ferreres): 109.3%
  • Quantum Finance: 103%

Some consultants were also pessimistic, transferring the three digits to 2024: this is the case of Econviews with 133%, KIEL Institute 120%, BBVA 116% and OJF 100%.

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The report recalled that “inflation stood at 83% in September compared to a year earlier, compared to 78.5% in August. The September result marked the highest inflation rate since current records began.”

what will happen to the dollar

As for the official wholesale dollar, the consensus expects it to close next year at $318 (versus $269 estimated by the Government), but it scales to $431 for BancTrust economists, followed by Empiria $417, Quantum $381 and LCG $379.

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2024:

  • Consultant average: $496.
  • Ecoviews: $906
  • Quantum Finance: $743
  • Ecolatin: $588
  • Econosignal: $543

Increase

The report highlights that “the pace of economic growth will slow down markedly in 2023.” In fact, economists forecast that the economy will not grow next year (0.1%), while the Government bet on a cautious 2%. For 2024, the consultants foresee a rise of 1.3 percent, just above the vegetative growth rate of the Argentine population measured by the last INDEC Census.

“Momentum is likely to cool in the third quarter after GDP growth accelerated in the second quarter, driven by faster growth in public investment and exports.”

“Year-on-year growth in economic activity and industrial production was lower, on average, in July-August than in the second quarter.”

In addition, the increase “in interest rates and inflation, together with the drop in consumer confidence, will have affected private consumption.” Looking ahead to the current quarter, “the fall in consumer confidence in October bodes poorly for spending.”

Source: Ambito

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