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Sunday, November 27, 2022

Todesca has a week to convince about his candidacy

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This is not to say that, at least from what has slipped over the last two weeks, it is not expected that it will already have Biden to your favourite. From what was disclosed, the Brazilian candidate Ilan Goldfajn he would already have the votes of the United States guaranteed, after having personally met with the representative before the international financial organizations of the Secretary of the Treasury of Janet Yellen, the old acquaintance of Argentina David Lipton. According to the Brazilian delegation, it would be a fact that the until now managing director for the Western Hemisphere of the IMF (with a license) would have a promise of support from Lipton, which would already guarantee him 40% of the votes. In this poroteo adds the election of Paraguay and Uruguay, who as Mercosur partners have already expressed their support to Goldfajn.

Interestingly, what is still unclear is whether his own country will vote for him. Just because Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the winner of the presidential elections, has not yet been issued; given that for now he considers his nomination as an intention of his opponent Jair Bosonaro. What is not really known about Lula is whether he will publicly object to his compatriot in the race to the top of the IDB, since the vote will be next Friday and who will have the affirmative pen will be the Bolsonaro administration, who nominated the former president. the Central Bank of your country. The only alternative for Brazil not to vote for his credit is for Lula to say publicly that she is against it, something that has not happened yet.

The alternatives

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If finally the US and Brazil support Goldfajn, the compulsa will be defined. However, doubts still arise as to whether the candidate who led everyone in his candidacy actually has the votes of the United States. And that’s where Todesca could move on Between today and tomorrow he will have his raid of meetings with the representatives of the IDB, to whom he will present his plans. But, in addition, the ambassador’s lobby Jorge Arguello through, he will try to make contact with Lipton that will open the door of the Treasury Secretariat to explain his potentialities.

Who could help her is Sergio Massawhose name emerged last week as a potable man to lead the IDB from the ranks of the North American Congress, with senators and representatives both Democrats and Republicans as a man of consensus. The Minister of Economy never endorsed the candidacy and finally the local credit ended up being Todesca Bocco. We will have to see if from today Massa activates her WhatsApp with her North American sources to intercede in favor of the Argentine candidate.

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The economist’s assets are significant. She is the first woman in history to go so far in compulsa, something that is considered important in these circumstances, given the scandalous theme for which Claver-Carone should have been ejected from the IDB. She also has a record of good experience and conduct in her days as an Argentine representative before the IMF and later as one of the country’s negotiators before creditors, forming a team from the head of the Cabinet of santiago cafiero in times of discussion of private debt. He also has a very good general technical consideration, without major questions about his heterodox vision of the economy.

The main disadvantage of Todesca It is, curiously, the position of the government of Alberto Fernández before the United States. The majority shareholders of the IDB do not like the usual statements that come from Buenos Aires, with open and harsh criticism (even if they are real) about the functioning of the IMF, the World Bank and the IDB. In fact, the presidential statements about how bad things are, credit-wise, within the entity, were not a good letter of introduction for the candidate. Alberto Fernández even spoke ill of Biden and his refusal to remove Claver Carone once the Trump administration was replaced. It is remembered in Washington, where the IDB headquarters are, that the entity’s relationship with Argentina in the time of the North American was terrible; to the point of being declared an insolvent country under pressure from the then manager of the entity. Only Massa’s management upon arriving at the IDB made the credits reactivate, but to favor the Tigrense.

Todesca Bocco and Goldfajn have added value over the other candidates. Argentina and Brazil never led the entity, despite being after the United States the countries with the highest level of shares, holding 11% each. Up to now there have been Colombians, Uruguayans, Chileans, Mexicans and North Americans; but not from the two Latin American countries that contribute the most money.

The opponents of Argentina and Brazil will be Nicolás Eyzaguirre, who is also the former managing director for the Western Hemisphere and former Minister of Finance and Education of Chile, who postulates himself as the consensus candidate for the Argentine-Brazilian dispute. Apparently further back in the possibilities appears the deputy governor of the Central Bank of Mexico, Gerardo Esquivel, in a confusing presentation before the departure of the first candidate of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the star economist of ECLAC Alicia Bárcena, who was publicly rejected for the United States. Running even further back is Trinidad & Tobago man Gerard Johnson, who enters the race as a consultant to the Jamaican Ministry of Finance and a former IDB employee.

The winner of the battle will remain in the presidency of the IDB for five years, with the possibility of being re-elected for five more. In addition to the majority of the votes, he must have the final vote of 15 of the 28 countries in the region.

Source: Ambito

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