In the short term, there is talk of an expansion of the Chinese swap, but until the yuan is recorded in the accounts of the Central Bank, we will not be convinced if this objective has been achieved. The succession of unfulfilled announcements make us more cautious in the financial scenario.
Up to now, the Central Bank has not changed interest rates; according to its logic, inflation would have to go down, therefore, it is preparing to keep the inflation rate stable. The Market Expectation Survey sees 12-month inflation at around 100% per year, the fixed term rate is 75% per year and, if we calculate the effective rate, it stands at 107% per year. It would give the impression that, until the inflation rate does not exceed this mark, they will not change interest rates. They make a mistake from here to China.
The 29-day term Treasury bill yields 110.72% per year, while the 75-day Treasury bill yields 112.52% per year. In this way, the government seeks that investors run from fixed-term placements in banks, to directly finance the State at a higher rate.
From our point of view, the Central Bank is wrong in not raising the interest rate. With the exchange rate lag that we have, it is impossible to maintain the price of the wholesale dollar around current levels over the next year, or only by increasing the current month’s inflation. Sooner or later it will have to devalue at a faster rate, otherwise exports will languish over time.
The lack of dollars will force importers to bring merchandise into the country with their own dollars, this implies that they must pay for the products at a dollar of $315 (the dollar counted with liquidation is used for these operations) this would imply a very important rise in prices or bankruptcies in the market. If there is no rise in wages, the recession would deepen and force a change in economic measures.
With the MEP dollar in $302 and the Qatari dollar in $336There is no doubt that those who travel to the World Cup will demand MEP dollars before using the cards abroad. There is something in the market called arbitration, something that the current authorities of the Central Bank do not know about, but that Argentines know perfectly well. There is no doubt that the MEP dollar will rise to equal the Qatar dollar.
At the current rate of devaluation, the Qatar dollar, by the end of the month, should be around $350, that price could have the MEP dollar by the end of the month. By December 2022 and taking an increase in the official dollar of approximately 7% for December, the Qatari dollar could be located at $380if the arbitration is promoted by the holidays, we do not rule out that this level could be exceeded.
In conclusion, we are going to have a MEP dollar that could reach $400 by the end of the year. The Fair Prices program will be difficult to comply with, or it will be stillborn due to the lack of current consensus. In the current monetary framework, it is highly recommended to buy MEP dollar. Companies should take financing in the market at current rates, from our point of view inflation at 12 months would be 120% per year, therefore, credit rates are negative against inflation, it is preferable to work with money from third parties and not with their own money as long as the company has positive results. We continue to create a tax shield to pay less income tax.
Source: Ambito
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