Matias Lestani: We are in a drought that, although it is not worse than that of 2018, is comparable to that of 2009. If evaluated at the national level, it would seem that this would normalize and what was left of wheat would be fine. In any case, it is clear that we are in a harvest well below expectations.
Q.: How will this affect the economy?
ML: We are undoubtedly going to have a much smaller sale of wheat at the end of the year. In 2021 it was around US$3.2 billion and this year we will be around US$2.1 billion, but it will depend on the harvest. Regarding the early planting of corn, it will not be there either because the planting window has moved, therefore, we are going to spend a tight first four-month period in terms of the settlement of foreign exchange in the agricultural sector. We must also bear in mind that with the soybean dollar, liquidations were brought forward, so with the current drought it is difficult for producers to write down futures, at least until they see the soybeans implanted and until they see how the crop evolves. This will slow down the entry of foreign currency and it will only be possible to match after the first four-month period.
Q.: What do you think of the rumors about a new soybean dollar?
ML: Even if there is a new scheme and assuming that it is more tempting, the producer is going to liquidate the stock that it has but is not going to write down new operations, because in a drought scenario it does not know what it is that can compromise its production. They are not used to arbitrating, therefore, until they have soybeans planted and see how it evolves, they will not score. It is a normal psychological response in a drought scenario where prudence rules. I think that the initial soybean dollar was very well implemented to achieve the liquidation of 8 million tons that were recorded without a price to be set, which are the ones that were liquidated, but it was targeted for that. If an exchange rate for soybeans is established for a longer time, the communicating vessels will cause the rise in value of the grain to push meat protein. When it was done, it had no impact because there were 25 days of operations and the capillarity did not get to complicate. That is what does not allow you to do something similar with wheat or corn, because it would go directly to increasing the prices of beef, poultry, pork and eggs. The soybean dollar does not have a direct impact as long as you do not stretch it over time.
Q.: When will the lack of dollars be felt?
ML: I see a complicated situation in the first quarter of the year. A reissue of the soybean dollar would not be as successful as the first; I am not saying that it should not be liquidated, because if the carrot is large there will be liquidations, but the decisions involve multiple factors, such as how much the producer has left, how much he earns and what he can do with the money, and now another component is added because the producer until he has his soybeans planted, if he scores it will be less.
It is not the same to implement a soybean dollar when the liquidation began after August than to do it now, when the gross campaign has not yet begun. It would be necessary to analyze it well and define what stimuli are applied.
Q.: What future do you see for livestock?
ML: In livestock, the impact of the drought must also be measured, because we are going to feel it next year. The domestic market is not pushing, neither is exporting, and international prices that are plummeting make it unattractive to sell abroad. We have a balance volume that last month is not fully met and that is because there are no attractive prices to export. Having a strong domestic market is essential when international prices fall, otherwise the price would have plummeted. Meat does not increase following inflation, if you look at it against inflation it is in half, but it does not have that same mechanism, what it does is jump by steps. They are the ones who played against us in 2020 when inflation was 48% and meat rose 90%. Now it is lagging against inflation, with an internal market that does not help, with a good offer and more kilos to distribute in the market. That irons the price. The meat is not going to go down because there is an inflationary component so strong that it does not go down. But if we were in a stable scenario, the price would have gone down. Meat behaves in leaps and suddenly makes a jolt to keep up with inflation.
Source: Ambito
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