Compared to the same month last year, 12 of the sectors that make up the EMAE registered increases. Among them, those of “Hotels and restaurants” (30.3%) and “Exploitation of mines and quarries” (14.2%) stand out.
The Wholesale, retail and repair trade sector grew 7.0% year-on-year and was the sector with the highest incidence in the EMAE variation, followed by Manufacturing industry (4.1%) and Real estate, business and rental activities (5.1% ). Among the three sectors, they contributed 2.2 percentage points to the interannual increase in the index, as detailed by INDEC.
A) Yes, The economy operated 2.4% higher in September than in December 2021. Precisely, the last months of last year left a high level of activity, on which it grew “marginally despite the restrictions that prevail”, as pointed out by the LCG consultancy. “In this sense, if it continues at the levels of the month of September, activity would be only 0.3% below the maximum reached at the end of 2017,” they remarked from the firm.
projections
“In light of these new data, we expect the economy to grow around 5.5% on average for the year, consistent with a growth of 2% measured December against December”, They pointed out from LCG and detailed: “This is partly due to the statistical drag left by 2021 (3.2%), added to a highly inflationary scenario and an expensive parallel exchange rate that stimulates demand as a result of a progressive loss of purchasing power. In other words, in the face of economic uncertainty, rising inflation and a higher cost of savings, consumption is anticipated and thus demand would drive activity”.
“However, while this dynamic may be ‘successful’ in the short term, it is not sustainable in the long run as installed capacity deteriorates. In any case, these eventual adjustments on the supply side will be faced in the immediate coming years, so providing certainty and stability for an expansion of investment will be necessary for the next administration”, they remarked from LCG.
In a similar vein, from ACM they pointed out that “in the remainder of the year the greatest difficulty in productive terms tries to be alleviated through an increase in demand, where the transfers to families that imply the bonuses and increases in social plans, as well as installment plans without interest”.
“That being said, for 2022 it is reasonable to expect that the economy will grow around 4.9%. This is in line with what the market expects, where the REM median forecasts growth of 4.8%”, they concluded from this firm. They also project Ecolatina and Sarandí consultancies grew by around 5%.
Meanwhile, for next year, the main warning signs will be in the availability of foreign currency and the alarms that go off in the face of the next heavy harvest due to weather issues.
“In addition, the slow reduction of the inflation (which will not slow down compared to 2022) and the impossibility of economic policy taking on a more expansive character in the election year (mainly on the fiscal front) make us project an economic stagnation in the coming year, where the economy could reach grow 1%, in line with population growth,” said a report by Ecolatina.
Source: Ambito
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