According to a survey carried out by the Bloomberg agency, the projection places inflation for this month, which will be announced next Wednesday, at 10.4%, barely two points less than that of October. However, there is optimism that, finally, inflation would have reached its peak.
“Both headline inflation and the core index should be at or near their peaks”said economists Marco Valli, Loredana Maria Federico and Tullia Bucco, from the Italian bank UniCredit in Milan, who also predicted that “disinflation should start early next year”:
Next week’s index will be key as it will be the latest inflation data that the European Central Bank (ECB) will know before its monetary meeting on December 15.
in the meeting, the rulers will decide between continuing with interest rate hikes of 75 points – it would be the third consecutive one in that range – or choosing a more moderate path with a 50-point rise, a position that is finding consensus in the face of fears that rate increases could send the bloc into a recession.
The rate is currently at 1.5%, an unprecedented level since 2009, prior to the bloc’s sovereign bond crisis. A more moderate inflation could serve as support for the ECB to order a smaller rise in interest rates. However, from the monetary entity they estimate that inflation would remain at current levels.
“In the coming months, inflation will be hovering around current levels, that is, a little over 10%.”, affirmed the vice president of the monetary entity, Luis de Guindos, in a television interview. Current inflation is more than five times the ECB’s traditional goal, that is, inflation of 2% per year.
Economists, for their part, project core inflation -a rate that excludes volatile energy and food prices- with no major changes this month, hovering around 5% annually. The inflation rate in the Eurozone reveals dissimilar situations among the various countries that comprise it.
While Estonia and Lithuania registered rates of 22.5% and 22.1%, respectively, in October; France (7.1%), Spain (7.3%) and Malta (7.4%) were below average. Meanwhile, A.Germany and Italy were affected by strong increases: in the German case inflation was 11.6% (0.7 points more than in September) and in Italy it was 12.6% (3.2 points higher and a record since March of 1984).
In all cases, the common denominator is the rise in the cost of energy as a result of the war between Russia and Ukrainewith a rise that averaged 41.5% across the block. It is followed by food with a rise of 13.1%, especially those not processed which presented an increase of 15.5%.
Source: Ambito
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