By case, Camilo Tiscorniadirector of the consulting firm C&T, told Ámbito that inflation this month will be “around 6%.” He also highlighted that the increases in food and beverages were “moderated”.
“From the Libertad y Progreso Foundation we hope for the month of November a rise in the Consumer Price Index of 6.2%. With this, the slowdown observed in October would be confirmed, which is explained more than anything by the moderation in the rise of the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages category, which is rising at the lowest rate since last June. Instead, We see that throughout the last quarter of the year regulated prices will have an upward impact, mainly through the removal of subsidies for electricity, gas and network water”said Eugenio Marí, Chief Economist at Libertad y Progreso.
“Looking ahead to December, another factor that may help moderate the rise in the CPI is the Fair Prices Program, which, although it is not an effective tool to combat inflation, may have a temporary impact on the measurement of the Index of Prices. This is because it mainly includes products from the Food and Beverage category, which is the one with the highest weighting in the index, with 23% for the GBA region. Nevertheless, Given the current inflation levels, in principle we estimate that its effect will not be enough to break through the 6% monthly floor”, explained Mari.
For its part, the survey of retail prices carried out by the Eco Go consultancy showed that in the fourth week of the month food prices showed a variation of 1.4% compared to the previous week. “With this data and considering a projection of weekly variation of 1.5% for the last week of the month, inflation for food consumed at home in November would climb to 6.2% per month,” they said from the firm.
In this scenario, from EcoGo they projected that November inflation would be at 6.6%. “Regulated products drove the general indicator for the month upwards, highlighting increases in electricity, gas and water rates (18%, 10% and 25% on average), taxis (20%), schools in PBA (6.5%) , expenses (10%) and fuels (7.2%), cigarettes (3%), among others”, they stressed.
Fair Prices
The slowdown in the rise in the price of foodsthe analysts agree, will affect a lower inflation both in November and in the coming months. “It is one of the fundamental reasons, since many food outlets that had been rising a lot stabilized in some outlets”, pointed out Damián Di Pace, director of the Focus Market consultancy, who also explained that in many cases a strong increase had been observed in the previous months and that the fall in consumption does not “leave much room for new increases”.
In its objective to contain inflation, the Government announced the agreement with the oil companies so that fuels participate in the Fair Prices program (see separate). Thus, it adds to the implementation of the plan that fixes for a period of 120 days the prices of more than 1,800 basic necessitiesthrough voluntary agreements with producing and marketing companies.
Source: Ambito
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