In the first round of the last tender in November, the Ministry of the Economy failed to complete a maturity of $260,000 million (it managed to get a loan of $220,000 million) and ended the month without adding net financing to cover the fiscal deficit. He barely managed to close the monthly commitments with the accumulated amount he had from previous calls.
Then, in the second round of this Tuesday, in which the entities of the group of market makers participated, it obtained another $7,642 million that did not substantially change the results of the previous day. Almost everything was done with a Lede that expires on March 31. There was only $2 million for the Lede as of April.
Regarding the problems that the Government is having to obtain credit in the local market, Ricardo Delgado, head of Analytica, warned that by the end of the year “the demand for pesos is increasing and therefore keeping immobilized is more difficult.” He stated that with the widening of the exchange rate gap in recent weeks “it was foreseeable” that the Government would have more and more problems to obtain financing. “The competition from the CCL appeared to him,” he explained.
In the same way, Delgado maintained that the reduction of the gap, which will generate the soybean dollar II, can cause the inverse effect: that, with a stabilization of the exchange rate, the rate in pesos will once again be more attractive. The director of Analytica considered that now “we have to spend the summer” and partly look towards the opposition, regarding the signals it gives in case they win the 2023 electionsif it is going to comply with the commitments assumed by the State at this stage.
The AlyC Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI) warned that the Government faces “a very demanding scenario”. In his last report, he estimated that the roll over level of the last call reached 83%, so it considered that the scenario “was notoriously complicated” in light of the latest results.
Martín Kalos, director of EPyCA consultants considered that “despite the fact that the Ministry’s press release indicates that the objective had been met, in reality it does not manage to roll over the debt since it falls short of about $50,000 million and what it places does short term”. “What was achieved is to refinance only between four and five months, and for that he had to pay rates above what the titles paid in the secondary market,” he added. Kalos raised that “The government will have a hard time getting through these months” and added that “until the election date, financing will be short-term and expensive.”
For its part, the consulting firm Invest in the Stock Market (IEB) He estimated that, due to the meager result of the tender, the Central Bank will have to issue some $45,000 million to cover the fiscal deficit for the month. Also raised doubts regarding the December maturities since there would be no signs at the moment that allow us to infer that the markets will react differently. For IEB, seasonally the last month of the year is of high demand for pesos, but in turn, also of strong commitments from the public sector.
Source: Ambito
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