In this context, according to Focus Newsletter who disclosed the central bank based on the analysis of banks and private consultancies, the projection of growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose to 3.05% for this year, improving from 2.81% the previous week. In fact, throughout 2022, analysts were revising their estimates upwards: in January, an improvement of just 0.3% was projected.
This is fundamental data for Argentina. It is that, according to what analysts tend to point out, in general it is estimated that each point of GDP that grows Brazil, the Argentine economy benefits by 0.3 points of growth.
Meanwhile, by 2023, the GDP growth estimate went from a growth of 0.7% to an advance of 0.75%. On the other hand, last week the state Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) indicated a GDP expansion of 3.6% in the third quarter of this year, compared to the same period in 2021.
Thus, the Brazilian economy grew less than expected, despite a multimillion-dollar fiscal stimulus package that expanded social assistance to the most vulnerable sectors and reduced taxes in the electoral context. According to official data, GDP expanded by 0.4% between July and September compared to the previous quarter, below analyst estimates.
commercial exchange
Last month, the trade balance returned to a surplus for Argentina for the first time since December 2021. “After ten consecutive months of deficit (US$232 million per month on average), November presented a positive balance with Brazil of US$57 million. However, it is important to highlight that the surplus fell significantly in relation to the same month last year (-81.6% yoy), when it had reached US$307 million”, remarked the consulting firm Abeceb.
“The surplus was a consequence of the notable slowdown in the growth of imports, which managed to offset the drop in exports. Strictly speaking: imports grew 13.9% and reached US$1,193 million, while exports fell 7.8% and totaled US$1,249 million”, they added from the firm.
Thus, in the first eleven months of the year the accumulated bilateral deficit was US$2,238 million, which represents a notable deterioration in relation to the deficit of the same period last year (US$26 million).
“In this way, After the exceptional surplus of 2021, this year it is on track to close with a bilateral trade deficit of around US$2.4 billion for Argentina. In any case, it is worth noting that this is still almost 30% below the average of US$3,500 in 2004-2018”, they stressed from Abeceb.
Finally, when projecting what can happen next year, they highlighted: “Although Lula would seek greater regional integration in South America and this could give some additional impetus to bilateral trade, the trade flow should not vary substantially, since concrete proposals are still lacking to overcome structural issues. There is a significant concentration in traditional sectors that led to a consistent drop in the flow of trade between the two; there is a pending technical agenda with obstacles (licences, regulations, double tariff, etc.); and there is little financial integration (the discussion on the use of local currencies for trade shows no progress)”.
Source: Ambito
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