In this regard, from the Eco Go consultancy they pointed out that the “The survey corresponding to the first week of December showed a variation of 0.6% in food prices compared to the previous week.” “This implies a slowdown in the indicator, which fell 0.1 pp in the margin. With this data and considering a forecast variation of 1% for the remaining weeks, inflation for food consumed at home in December would reach 4.2% per month,” they added.
From the signing they estimated that “December inflation would thus be located at 4.8% driven by increases in prepaid (6.5%), private schools in PBA (10%) and CABA (14%), tolls and fuels (4%), among others”. “The entry into force of the ‘Fair Prices’ Program pushed the general index down and leaves less drag for December. In addition, the Government ordered at the weekend to postpone the increase in urban transport rates in CABA until January. Both measures pushed our monthly estimate downwards”, they detailed.
Analysis
Next week the data will be known november inflation. According to private surveys, the CPI would have had a rise around 6%: in fact, some projections estimate that it could have pierced that number.
Regarding what may happen in December, although it is still early to know for sure, it is estimated that inflation may be similar to that of last month.
“We do not project a stronger slowdown in December, compared to November. We project a similar variation, among other things because there are increases in regulated prices: both fuel and energy rates, prepaid”, he pointed out to Ambit Claudio Caprarulo, director at the Analytica consultancy, who explained: “And, on the other hand, we have to see how seasonal prices still react. The month is just beginning, but there are usually the typical adjustments in everything that is hotels and restaurants, due to the start of the summer season ”.
Regarding the deceleration observed in food prices and the inflation projections for December, Camilo Tiscornia, director of the C&T consultancy, said: “Regarding the lower rise in food, what is influencing a lot is meat, which is not so affected by Fair Prices, and vegetables. So, I would not overestimate the success of this government program”.
“Secondly, in the month of December there are strong increases, as in clothing, tourism for vacations, domestic service, the effect on the expenses of the Christmas bonuses of those in charge, December is a heavy month,” remarked the economist, who for this reason stated: “I think that, despite the moderation of the rise in food, it seems difficult for inflation in December to come close to 5%”.
For Hernán Letcher, director of CEPA, “The Fair Prices policy can take effect in December”, although he clarified: “To some extent, it may be offset by the seasonal dynamics that inflation usually has this month. But, as a large part of the inflationary phenomenon at this stage has to do with speculation, and in this sense the program is oriented towards addressing this problem, I believe that it can continue on a downward path, although perhaps not as pronounced as one might hope. ”.
Source: Ambito
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