Inflation: what economists expect
According to the consultants that participated in the REM, retail inflation for this year will be 99% year-on-year, which marks a drop of 1.0 percentage point compared to the forecast of the previous survey.
The Secretary of Economic Programming, Gabriel Rubinstein, stated today that “inflation is going down“because in october”core inflation was 5.5% and wholesale 4.8% when the general index was 6.3%“, and for this month he estimated that the trend is “continuing downward”.
As for a forecast for 2023, analysts pushed it up to 99.7% yoy (3.7 percentage points more than in the previous REM) and projected inflation of 75% for 2024, already 5.4 percentage points above the October survey.
The number for 2023 is also far from what the Government foresees who wants inflation to slow down to 60% next year, more than 30 percentage points below what the market expects.
What’s going to happen with the dollar
The monthly average wholesale nominal exchange rate was $162.12 per dollar in November 2022. The forecast of those who respond to the REM indicates that it will rise $10.30 (6.4% monthly) to $172.42 per dollar in December 2022.
Thus, the change in the nominal exchange rate forecast by REM participants is 69.2% year-on-year for December, almost 30 points below expected inflation.
This depreciation below the advance of the general price level goes against what is stipulated in the agreement with the IMF, where the Government promised that the crawling peg will accompany the rise in the general price level.
Regarding the previous survey, upward corrections were evidenced in the months between February and April 2023, in addition to an increase by the end of 2022. Worse still, for next year, analysts expect the devaluation to intensify and the exchange rate to increase to over 85% per year.
Source: Ambito
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