Last week the business world was surprised by the statement of a member of the economic team: “Inflation is falling.” The phrase corresponds to the Secretary of Economic Programming, gabriel rubinstein, the former consultant who is respected in that circle for his “sincerity.” His argument is not based only on the first indicators for November, but on some data from October: core inflation was 5.5% and wholesale inflation was 4.8%.
In any case, sustaining this drop to reach April with inflation that “starts with three” will not be an easy task. Sergio Massa seeks to accumulate reserves and order the fiscal front to attack the macroeconomic root of the problem. But at the same time, try to put expectations on track to bring “actual inflation to theoretical inflation”. The divergence between these two variables, they understand, is explained by the acceleration caused by inertia.
In this plan to moderate expectations, he has already managed to agree with mass consumption companies to freeze some 1,800 products until March and the 4% limit for increases in another 30,000. Along the same lines, he reinforced the “4×4” plan by agreeing on scheduled increases for fuels with the main companies in the sector. In the same sense there were agreements with textiles, clothing, metallurgical, among others.
This Monday Sergio Massa agreed with the industry to freeze the prices of cell phones manufactured in Tierra del Fuego for a period of ninety days. At the same time, the return of the phones to the Now 12 program was announced and a new financing line was launched for the purchase of these items in ten installments with a rate of 48%. All with the idea of boosting consumption, but at the same time, moderating expectations.
Official sources told Ámbito that during this week they will seal other agreements with suppliers of mass consumption. The products involved will be aluminum, glass, plastic and cardboard, among others. The model will be to establish a price path with predictability so that the firms that adhered to Fair Prices have certainty when calculating their costs.
In the course of the next few days, an agreement with the footwear sector that will include the leading brands will also be announced. A ceiling will also be established for the increases in the following months. In this case, due to the distortion in relative prices, it could include an initial price retraction.
The carrot offered for all the agreements is the most yearned for today by any firm that operates in Argentina: the advance of dollars at the official price to import. So the ability to accumulate reserves will largely mark the luck of the plan.
Source: Ambito
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