The skepticism shown by this survey about the future of the sector coincides with that exhibited by a similar study carried out last week by the Southern University.
Regarding the next campaign, the entity indicated that to date 37.1% of the area is sown for soybeans, against an average of 61.4% for the 2017-2022 period. Meanwhile, in the case of corn, 32.7% were planted compared to an average of 46.7% for the same period.
In both cases the delay responds to the lack of humidity to advance in the work.
With this scenario “the Government would have incentives to implement a ‘3 soybean dollar’ during 2023, even if the remaining stocks from past campaigns are low” because it considered that “with a reopening of the program it can encourage the rapid commercialization of the crop 22/23 , putting less pressure on the need to restrict imports to keep the official exchange market balanced without correcting the exchange rate.”
In turn, he held that “the “soybean dollar” puts more resources in the hands of the National Executive, in the form of export rights (DD.EE.), to have a more expansive fiscal policy in an electoral year, without failing to comply with the goals with the IMF (deficit 1.9% of GDP)”.
On the other hand, he warned that this program entails “a greater issuance by the BCRA, to cover the differential granted to exporters of the soybean chain, calculated at $174 billion, which is added to a complex panorama for a monetary policy that must deal with high inflation and the need to finance the Treasury”.
Regarding expectations, 52% of those surveyed believe that it is currently a bad time to make investments, the highest percentage since the pandemic.
“Thus, the adverse climate context, plus the prevailing macro and institutional conditions, would have a negative impact on the intention to invest,” CREA understood.
Source: Ambito
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