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Wednesday, February 1, 2023

the factors that will condition the evolution of the dollar

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The financial analyst Rubén Ullua considered that “as long as there is no genuine accumulation of reserves and an opening of the stocks, the impression is that we are going to maintain a gap difference above 90% with respect to the official one, as happened in 2022 , despite the fact that there were peaks with the departure of Guzmán and the different changes in the Cabinet ”. “Regarding the keys, Argentina has a fairly important storm front with the drought and the high debt maturities in pesos, which, if they cannot be dealt with correctly, are factors that can generate greater volatility,” he added. .

Roberto Geretto, from CMF Asset Management, stated: “For next year, a fundamental factor will be compliance with the fiscal goals of the agreement with the IMF, because there will be political incentives to expand spending. Estimatedly, even meeting the goal of a 1.9% GDP deficit, monetary expansion will be increasing 80%, which will affect the price of parallel dollars and put a floor on inflation. We will also have to see what happens with rates and the tightening of the stocks, which may add another boost to unofficial dollars. On the other hand, the main factors that the market will look at are the accumulation of BCRA reserves, which will be affected by the drought. Also compliance with the goals agreed with the IMF, and if the Treasury can meet the maturities of the debt in pesos. These three variables are going to be fundamental to determine how the Government arrives in the face of the elections”.

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For his part, Juan Martín Yanzón, from ConoSur Investments, highlighted that the main problem for the exchange front in the short term is the liquidation of agriculture. “The drought is going to bring problems in the settlement of the first and second quarters of the year. And the fact that there is no inflow of foreign currency, added to the levels of issuance that we are having, can cause a strong escalation of the financiers. Likewise, he gives the certainty that the crawling peg will have to be accelerated, taking into account the situation that the supply will be scarce next year, even if they add new differential exchange rates ”, stated the specialist.

On the other hand, Yanzón added: “The market pays close attention to the rate level and what will happen with the different tenders. The Government is trying to control the pesos that are in circulation, but the problem is that inflation was close to 100% and the rates were doubled, both for the sureties and for the bills. In this scenario, the dollar rose 70%, and with maturities approaching from March, the problem may become more complex. The fact of having to put a bigger incentive every time to control the pesos in circulation, generates greater pressures, which at some point are going to be released to the dollar”.

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Carolina Paparatto

Source: Ambito

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