To support this issue, FIDE carried out a comparative work on the GDP of both countries during the last 15 years, identifying that in 73% of the quarters, when Brazil grew, so did our countryand revealed in relation to the commercial link that Brazil is the main destination of Argentine exportswith a 13% of the total, of which 30% are industrialand the second supplier of imports, with 19% of the total, 20% of which are intermediate and capital goods.
The data becomes more relevant if the complex result of 2022 is taken into account, with Brazil growing half as much as our country, this is a 2.9%and in which, according to the consultant ABECEB of the former Minister of Industry of the Government of Cambiemos, Dante SicaArgentina closed 2022 with a preliminary bilateral cumulative deficit of US$2,250 millions, returning to usual bilateral red since 2004 and reversing the surpluses of 2019 and 2021.
From this consultancy they also pointed out that Lula’s return to the presidency and the bilateral meeting with Alberto Fernández during his first day in office, as well as the confirmation of a second meeting towards the end of this month, “expectations have increased for a 2023 in which the bilateral relationship with Brazil could deepen”
question marks
However, ABCB raises some caution “as regards the possibility of there being substantial changes in the trade flow with Brazil, due to the lack of direction of Mercosur, which has not finished establishing itself as a Free Trade Zone or as a Customs Union, few agreements beyond the strictly tariff, and incompatibility of macro policies between both countries.
Even FIDE highlights other elements that could complicate the positive presupposed impact on the assumption of Lula, such as the fact that his government will not be a majority in the chambers and will be forced to negotiate the laws.
ABCBfor his part, concludes that although Lula’s willingness to move towards greater regional integration could give some impetus to bilateral trade -or translate into progress on some pending issues such as using local currencies for trade-, the truth is No substantial changes are expected.
Source: Ambito
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