However, from the same consultancy they point out that, in the future, “term deposits may be seen negatively impacted by an eventual pronouncement of the exchange rate gap”, although they also stated that “a dismantling of positions in public securities due to fears of compliance with Treasury commitments could lead to an (undesirable) increase in placements during the year”. In any case, they indicated that it was “to be expected” that demand deposits continue to evolve below the price level of the economy.
Its counterpart, the loans in pesos to the private sector, denoted, according to LCG, the “serious situation” in which they are found, accumulating an average drop of 3.6% real year-on-year, despite starting from a low base of comparison in 2021.
Likewise, they maintain that in a scenario of less activity such as the one expected for this year, there will be “a direct correlate on credit dynamics, and on top of this is added a higher cost of financing as a result of increases in interest rates”, apart from the fact that, they added, during the year “periods with better dynamics product of isolated policies to promote consumption such as “Ahora 30”.
Deposits in December
Since GCL bank figures were also released of the month of decemberwhere private sector deposits in pesos achieved the highest growth of the year in monthly terms (+4.3% real month-on-month) product of the payment of the Complementary Annual Salary and year-end bonuses, noting that annually, and after four months of decline, they grew in real terms, albeit marginally (+0.5% real year-on-year).
Likewise, sight deposits expanded at a real 10% MoM rate in December, product of a increase in 15% real month in savings accounts. In annual terms, they closed the year with a contraction of 9% real year-on-year.
On the other hand, term placements, and contrary to previous months, marked a real 0.8% MoM contraction, possibly explained by a dismantling of wholesale placements to meet the obligations of the month (-0.2% real month-on-month). In annual terms they marked a 18% real growth compared to December 2021.
In relation to placements in foreign currency, since GCL noted that for the fifth consecutive month there was a increase at the end of December in US$16.4 million (+US$979 million inter-monthly)recovering amounts close to those observed during July 2021 and, therefore, what was lost after the departure of Martin Guzman. In annual terms they marked a increase of 3.6%.
In relation to the loansduring the month of December, those made in Pesos to the Private Sector remained practically unchanged compared to the previous month (+0.2% real month-on-month), closing the year with two consecutive months without major changes. In annual terms they fell for the fourth consecutive month, with a real 14% in December.
On the other hand, loans to companies presented marginal growth (+0.4% real month), driven by an increase in Overdrafts (very short-term loans) and Notes of 0.2% real month. In annual terms they marked a drop of 11% in real terms, accelerating 3 pp compared to the October variation.
Source: Ambito
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