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Wednesday, February 1, 2023

They warn that agricultural production would fall by at least 20%

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These calculations, which were adjusted week after week in which there was no rain, now set a scenario of great concern not only for the countryside but also for the economy as a whole.

Néstor Roulet, agricultural producer, consultant and former official of the Ministry of Agroindustry, warned that the situation of the 2022/23 agricultural campaign is critical and the losses generated by the drought will have a decisive impact not only on the sector but also on each of the cities of the interior of the country that develop from the countryside. A few days ago, the consultant made an estimate in which he contemplated production losses of 15 million tons of corn and 5 of soybeans, which are added to the almost 10 that have already been lost in wheat.

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In a dialogue with Ámbito, Roulet explained that “in the case of corn, the sowing window has narrowed and no more can be sown, because what is being sown will flower and ripen from March onwards, with probable first early frosts, so there are almost no chances of planting. In the case of soybeans, the planting window would allow us to reach January 15, but with each day that passes, more yield is lost.”

According to the farmer, “the crops that are now planted are in very bad shape. Nearly 50% are in fair or poor condition and also the crops that were planted will not have moisture in the arable layer because the neutral year will begin to appear after the first quarter, with which there would be no moisture to rebuild the crops. With this scenario, we are going to lose more than 30 million tons.” The impact of the drought will cause not only a decrease in the contribution of extensive crop chains to the Argentine economy (Gross Agricultural Product) but will also show its most dark in each of the cities in the interior, where billions of pesos will stop entering in concept of services associated with the countryside.

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Perhaps one of the simplest calculations, as to measure the direct relationship that exists between agricultural production and provincial economies, lies in the use of freight for the transfer of grains to port or storage areas. If one takes as a parameter a loss of 30 million tons, in this campaign close to 1 million trips will not be made (each truck transports 30 TN), which at an average of $180 thousand per trip would represent $180 billion that will not enter the towns.

For the agricultural sector, 2023 will be a year in which business will shrink as a result of a climatic phenomenon that is only now beginning to show signs of weakness, although at this point the damage is already irreparable.

Source: Ambito

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