On the contrary, in the Ministry of Economy they are convinced that the expansion will be above the 2% established in the budget. They bet that it will be even higher than 5%. But for this to happen, the industries must have the necessary dollars to import the inputs and intermediate goods, essential to not stop production, affect employment, consumption or activity.
“We are sitting down to plan the needs, as we did for example with the automotive industry,” explained an official from the economic team who participates in these talks to Ambit. In this sense, he explained: “The The idea is that industrialists have predictability. We guarantee everything they imported to produce last year and we give them an additional 5% or 10%.”
Massa, referring to the companies that participate in Fair Prices, stated in a recent interview: “We ask them that from the production of 2022, they calculate a 6% or 7% growth in the supply of goods. Until then we are willing to help them from the Central Bank with the provision of necessary inputs or intermediate goods”.
The drawback that arises is that the prices in dollars of inputs are also increasing due to the effect of global inflation. Therefore, the official consulted by this means maintained that “You have to review case by case”. In any case, it is clear that to achieve growth of 5%, with global price rises, imports will have to expand by more than the 2% forecast in the budget.
The question that arises is where the currencies will come from to sustain the activity. A first indication was given this Sunday by the president of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic, Miguel Pesce, who announced that a tranche of 35 billion yuan (about US$2.7 billion) of the swap with China will be activated to offset foreign exchange market operations.
At the same time, the Foreign Ministry points out that, after setting a historical record in 2022, exports will accelerate again this year and exceed US $ 105,000 million. Despite the effects of the drought, whose specific consequences on the commercial level are not yet known, agribusiness would once again be above the historical average and other sectors such as knowledge-based services could take off.
A third factor, but no less important, is the return of Lula Da Silva to power in Brazil. The new president of Argentina’s main trading partner will visit Buenos Aires between January 23 and 25. Within this framework, relevant announcements are expected to strengthen the financial and exchange front. They could range from a common currency to trade without going through the dollar, a currency swap similar to the one that governs with China and an assignment of Special Drawing Rights.
In any case, it will be necessary to take into account what an excellent source from the Casa Rosada told this medium: “Brazil is going to help us. And a lot”.
Source: Ambito
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