The truth is that there are elements that project 2022 in both directions. On the one hand, the dynamics of primary spending marks a clear downward course that should also be sustained in the last month of the year to comply with the commitments assumed by the current Government with the IMF. However, the December adjustment should have been very important to subtract the positive balance accumulated in the 11 months.
According to him lookoutthe spending adjustment is “notable since July, falling at increasingly significant rates compared to the previous year”. And it is that although November slowed the record, with a fall of the 7.5% year-on-year Front of 13% drop in OctoberJuly, August, and September had much smaller falls, from 5.3%, 3.1% and 2.3%. This, after increasing 4.1%, 11.6%, 19.2%, 18.6%, 17.2%, and 1% from January to June, respectively.
In this sense, from the Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis – IARAF of the former Cambiemos official, Nadín Argañarazit is argued that in the accumulated eleven months of 2022 the real size of primary spending increased by 2.7% real. If this figure is effective, this would imply a very strong adjustment in December so that 2022 does not end up being, even if minimally expansive.
Specifically, from the IARAF maintain that in the first eleven months of the year national public spending increased $516,000 million at November valueswith increases in Public works for $307,000 millionin wages for $155,000 millionin energy subsidies for $80,000 million and in assistance to public companies for $28,000 millionwhile there were falls in the Universal Assignment for $76 billionin transportation subsidies for $67 billionand in transfers to the provinces, current and capital, for $35,000 Y $18.4 billion respectively. Meanwhile, they maintain that real spending on retirement and pensions was maintained.
In any case, everything indicates that what will be achieved is the goal committed by the Government to the IMF in reduce the primary deficitthat is, the expense in relation to tax revenue.
From the consultant Wise Capital pointed to Telam that although there is still no official information regarding the income and expenses of December, “most likely it is within the limit, helped by the extra collection for the soybean dollar and the net financing obtained in the Treasury tenders“.
Also from the last Situation Report of the National University of Tres de Febrero (Untref) led by former Secretary of Commerce Roberto Feletti, it follows that the goal of reducing this deficit from 3 points in 2021 to 2.5 in 2022 would be met. As they point out based on their accounting records, “Thanks to the strong fiscal adjustment, public spending increased by 72.4% in the first 10 months of the year against inflation of 88% year-on-year”, to which will be added, depending on the goal with the IMF, the extra income from soy withholdings of 30% net on the 3,500 million dollars converted to pesos.
Source: Ambito
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